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Unemployment-Poverty Tradeoffs

In: Labor Markets and Institutions

  • Pierre-Richard Agénor

    (University of Manchester)

The author examines the potential trade-offs that may arise between poverty alleviation and unemployment reduction. He discusses various analytical arguments that may provide a rationale for their existence, and uses three alternative methodologies to assess their relevance: a vector autoregression framework (which is applied to Brazil and Chile), cross-country regressions, and simulations with a structural macro model linked to a household survey. Impulse response functions to output and wage shocks indicate no short-run tradeoff. between unemployment and poverty. By contrast, regression results, which control for a variety of determinants of poverty rates across countries, suggest that such a trade-off may indeed exist. Simulations with the structural model show that labor market reforms may induce both short- and long-run trade-offs between the composition of unemployment and the incidence of poverty among household groups.

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This chapter was published in: Jorge Restrepo & Andrea Tokman R. & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series Editor) (ed.) Labor Markets and Institutions, , chapter 5, pages 115-165, 2005.
This item is provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series with number v08c05pp115-165.
Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchsb:v08c05pp115-165
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  1. Ravallion, Martin, 2003. "The debate on globalization, poverty, and inequality : why measurement matters," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3038, The World Bank.
  2. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Aynaoui, Karim El, 2003. "Labor market policies and unemployment in Morocco : a quantitative analysis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3091, The World Bank.
  3. C Bean & Christopher A. Pissarides, 1992. "Unemployment, Consumption and Growth," CEP Discussion Papers dp0100, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  4. AGENOR Pierre-Richard & FERNANDES Reynaldo & HADDAD Eduardo & VAN DER MENSBRUGGHE Dominique, . "Analyzing the Impact of Adjustment Policies on the Poor: An IMMPA Framework for Brazil," EcoMod2003 330700002, EcoMod.
  5. Joshua Aizenman & Pierre-Richard Agénor, 1994. "Macroeconomic Adjustment with Segmented Labor Markets," IMF Working Papers 94/56, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Fabio Arico, 2003. "Growth and Unemployment: Towards a Theoretical Integration," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 419-455, 07.
  7. Cahuc, P. & Michel, P., 1992. "Minimum Wage, Unemployment and Growth," Papiers d'Economie Mathématique et Applications 92.35, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
  8. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Chen, Derek H.C. & Grimm, Michael, 2004. "Linking representative household models with household surveys for poverty analysis : a comparison of alternative methodologies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3343, The World Bank.
  9. van Schaik, A.B.T.M. & de Groot, H.L.F., 1995. "Unemployment and endogenous growth," Discussion Paper 1995-75, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  10. Aghion, Philippe & Howitt, Peter, 1991. "Growth and Unemployment," CEPR Discussion Papers 577, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Deaton, A., 2000. "Counting the World's Poor: Problems and Possible Solutions," Papers 197, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Development Studies.
  12. King, Ian & Welling, Linda, 1995. "Search, unemployment, and growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 499-507, June.
  13. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-44, January.
  14. Agenor, Pierre-Richard, 2002. "Macroeconomic adjustment and the poor : analytical issues and cross-country evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2788, The World Bank.
  15. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1995. "Measuring Business Cycles Approximate Band-Pass Filters for Economic Time Series," NBER Working Papers 5022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Jensen, Henning Tarp & Verghis, Mathew & Yeldan, Erinc, 2006. "Disinflation, fiscal sustainability, and labor market adjustment in Turkey," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3804, The World Bank.
  17. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 1999. "The Band Pass Filter," NBER Working Papers 7257, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003. "The Band Pass Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 435-465, 05.
  18. World Bank, 2004. "Unlocking the Employment Potential in the Middle East and North Africa : Toward a New Social Contract," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 15011.
  19. AGENOR Pierre-Richard & IZQUIERDO Alejandro & FOFACK Hippolyte, . "IMMPA: A Quantitative Macroeconomic Framework for the Analysis of Poverty Reduction Strategies," EcoMod2003 330700003, EcoMod.
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