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Is smooth Energiewende possible? Improving the performance of climate policies in Germany by optimizing the risk of electricity delivery

Author

Listed:
  • Jakub Bandurski

    (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences)

  • Eliza Hałatek

    (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences)

  • Adam Łaziński

    (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences)

  • Michał Künstler

    (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences)

Abstract

The Energiewende is a deep-rooted notion in the German economy. The main goal is to achieve climate neutrality by transitioning to renewable energy sources. However, the feasibility of this transition is partially hindered by power grid congestion, which undermines system efficiency and leads to both economic and environmental costs. We address this issue by making a prediction of the likelihood of congestion occurrence within the German TenneT DE electricity network in the years 2020-2023. We propose a twofold approach offering a combination of advanced econometric models and state-of-the-art machine learning methods. We offer separate solutions for up congestion when additional energy needs to be pushed to the network as well as down congestion when energy needs to be pulled away from the network. Analyzing the CatBoost with XAI, we identify factors that play a significant role in driving redispatch events within the German electricity network.

Suggested Citation

  • Jakub Bandurski & Eliza Hałatek & Adam Łaziński & Michał Künstler, 2025. "Is smooth Energiewende possible? Improving the performance of climate policies in Germany by optimizing the risk of electricity delivery," Working Papers 2025-30, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    • Handle: RePEc:war:wpaper:2025-30
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    File URL: https://www.wne.uw.edu.pl/download_file/6459/0
    File Function: First version, 2025
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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