IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

A Stochastic Sub-national Population Projection Methodology with an Application to the Waikato Region of New Zealand

Listed author(s):

In this paper we use a stochastic population projection methodology at the sub-national level as an alternative to the conventional deterministic cohort-component method. We briefly evaluate the accuracy of previous deterministic projections and find that there is a tendency for these to be conservative: under-projecting fast growing populations and over-projecting slow growing ones. We generate probabilistic population projections for five demographically distinct administrative areas within the Waikato region of New Zealand, namely Hamilton City, Franklin District, Thames-Coromandel District, Otorohanga District and South Waikato District. Although spatial interaction between the areas is not taken into account in the current version of the methodology, a consistent set of cross-regional assumptions is used. The results are compared to official sub-national deterministic projections. The accuracy of sub-national population projections is in New Zealand strongly affected by the instability of migration as a component of population change. Unlike the standard cohort-component methodology, in which net migration levels are projected, the key parameters of our stochastic methodology are age-gender-area specific net migration rates. The projected range of rates of population growth is wider for smaller regions and/or regions more strongly affected by net migration. Generally, the identified and modelled uncertainty makes the traditional ‘mid range’ scenario of sub-national population projections of limited use for policy analysis or planning beyond a relatively short projection horizon. Directions for further development of a stochastic sub-national projection methodology are suggested.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by University of Waikato, Population Studies Centre in its series Population Studies Centre Discussion Papers with number dp-70.

in new window

Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: 31 Mar 2010
Handle: RePEc:wai:pscdps:dp-70
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Private Bag 3105, Hamilton, New Zealand, 3240

Phone: + 64 (0)7 838 4040 (Administrator)
Fax: + 64 (0)7 838 4621
Web page:

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

in new window

  1. Jacob A. Mincer & Victor Zarnowitz, 1969. "The Evaluation of Economic Forecasts," NBER Chapters,in: Economic Forecasts and Expectations: Analysis of Forecasting Behavior and Performance, pages 3-46 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. M. Cameron & W. Cochrane & J. Poot, 2008. "End-user Informed Demographic Projections for Hamilton up to 2041," Population Studies Centre Discussion Papers dp-66, University of Waikato, Population Studies Centre.
  3. Susi Gorbey & Doug James & Jacques Poot, 1999. "Population Forecasting with Endogenous Migration: An Application to Trans-Tasman Migration," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 22(1), pages 69-101, April.
  4. Jacques Poot, 2009. "Trans-Tasman Migration, Transnationalism and Economic Development in Australasia," Working Papers 09_05, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
  5. D.T. Rutledge & M. Cameron & S. Elliott & T. Fenton & B. Huser & G. McBride & G. McDonald & M. O’Connor & D. Phyn & J. Poot & R. Price & F. Scrimgeour & B. Small & A. Tait & H. Van Delden & M.E. Wedde, 2008. "Choosing Regional Futures: Challenges and choices in building integrated models to support long-term regional planning in New Zealand," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(1), pages 85-108, November.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wai:pscdps:dp-70. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Brian Silverstone)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.