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End-user Informed Demographic Projections for Hamilton up to 2041


  • M. Cameron

    () (University of Waikato)

  • W. Cochrane

    () (University of Waikato)

  • J. Poot

    () (University of Waikato)


This report provides a set of projections of the population of Hamilton City and the larger Hamilton Zone. The projections have been calculated by means of the cohort component model. The projections can be considered alongside official Statistics New Zealand projections, but differ from the latter in terms of assumptions made about net migration. These assumptions constitute a number of scenarios that were informed by the Hamilton City Council and local consultations. These scenarios are linked to the potential impact of a number of economic development activities. The report also contains projections of the number of households, the labour force and two ethnic groups: Maori and New Zealand Europeans. In addition, a dwellings-based methodology is used to produce small area (Census Area Unit) projections. Across the scenarios, Hamilton City’s projected population growth over the next two decades ranges from 13.8 percent to 36.0 percent. This is between 1.5 to 12.2 percentage points higher than the corresponding projected national growth.

Suggested Citation

  • M. Cameron & W. Cochrane & J. Poot, 2008. "End-user Informed Demographic Projections for Hamilton up to 2041," Population Studies Centre Discussion Papers dp-66, University of Waikato, Population Studies Centre.
  • Handle: RePEc:wai:pscdps:dp-66

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Florence Jaumotte, 2003. "Female Labour Force Participation: Past Trends and Main Determinants in OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 376, OECD Publishing.
    2. Sandra Baxendine & Bill Cochrane & Jacques Poot, 2005. "Demographic Change and Transport Needs in the Waikato Region," Population Studies Centre Discussion Papers dp-51, University of Waikato, Population Studies Centre.
    3. John Bryant & Veronica Jacobsen & Matthew Bell & Daniel Garrett, 2004. "Labour Force Participation and GDP in New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 04/07, New Zealand Treasury.
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael P. Cameron & Jacques Poot, 2010. "A Stochastic Sub-national Population Projection Methodology with an Application to the Waikato Region of New Zealand," Population Studies Centre Discussion Papers dp-70, University of Waikato, Population Studies Centre.

    More about this item


    cohort component model; population; household; labour force; ethnicity; scenario; small area;

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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