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Empirical Modeling of Deprivation Contagion among Social Exclusion Dimensions (Using MCMC Methods)

  • Poggi, Ambra

    ()

    (LABORatorio R. Revelli)

  • Ramos, Xavi

    ()

    (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona)

Economic theory and empirical evidence clearly show that social exclusion dimensions are inter-related. Notwithstanding that, dimensions are usually assumed independent from one another in the economics literature. In this paper we explore the inter-dependency of social exclusion dimensions and study the transmission of deprivation among them. In particular, we propose the use of stochastic epidemic models, which are typically used to study the transmission of infectious diseases, to the analysis of deprivation diffusion among social exclusion dimensions with the aim of acquiring a deeper understanding of the mechanism governing deprivation transmission. We also provide an empirical implementation that investigates the consequences, in terms of future deprivation, for Italian and Spanish women of being jobless, as opposed to doing paid work. We also investigate the consequences of being unemployed versus being inactive. We conclude that working seems to act as a protective mechanism to shocks. In addition, conditional on losing one’s job, women who subsequently search for a job (unemployed) are more likely to experience contagion than women who do not search (inactive).

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Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 2614.

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Length: 17 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2007
Date of revision:
Publication status: published in: Jacques Silber (ed.), The Measurement of Individual Well-Being and Group Inequalities: Essays in Memory of Z.M. Berrebi, Routledge, 2010
Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp2614
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  1. Walter Bossert & Conchita D'Ambrosio & Vito Peragine, 2007. "Deprivation and Social Exclusion," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 74(296), pages 777-803, November.
  2. Namkee Ahn & Pedro Mira, . "A note on the changing relationship between fertility and female employment rates in developed countries," Working Papers 99-09, FEDEA.
  3. Satya R. Chakravarty & Conchita D'Ambrosio, 2003. "The Measurement of Social Exclusion," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 364, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  4. Ambra Poggi, 2003. "Does persistence of social exclusion exist in Spain?," Working Papers wpdea0308, Department of Applied Economics at Universitat Autonoma of Barcelona.
  5. Tsakloglou, Panos & Papadopoulos, Fotis, 2001. "Identifying Population Groups at High Risk of Social Exclusion: Evidence from the ECHP," IZA Discussion Papers 392, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  6. Florence Jaumotte, 2003. "Female Labour Force Participation: Past Trends and Main Determinants in OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 376, OECD Publishing.
  7. Heckman, James J, 1979. "Sample Selection Bias as a Specification Error," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(1), pages 153-61, January.
  8. Heckman, James J & Ichimura, Hidehiko & Todd, Petra E, 1997. "Matching as an Econometric Evaluation Estimator: Evidence from Evaluating a Job Training Programme," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(4), pages 605-54, October.
  9. Stephen Nickell, 2003. "Poverty and Worklessness in Britain," CEP Discussion Papers dp0579, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  10. Clark, Andrew E & Oswald, Andrew J, 1994. "Unhappiness and Unemployment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(424), pages 648-59, May.
  11. Philip D. O'Neill & David J. Balding & Niels G. Becker & Mervi Eerola & Denis Mollison, 2000. "Analyses of infectious disease data from household outbreaks by Markov chain Monte Carlo methods," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 49(4), pages 517-542.
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