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Government Size and Economic Growth: Time-Series Evidence for the United Kingdom, 1830-1993

This study considers the long-run relationship between government expenditure and economic growth for the United Kingdom over the period 1830 to 1993. The causality analysis allows for the effects of exports, and for the presence of complex structural breaks in the data. The results support the export-led growth hypothesis. Although support for Wagner’s Law is sensitive to the choice of sample period, there is evidence that GDP growth Granger-causes the share of government spending in GDP indirectly through exports’ share of GDP during the period 1870-1930.

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File URL: http://www.uvic.ca/socialsciences/economics/assets/docs/econometrics/ewp0501.pdf
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Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Victoria in its series Econometrics Working Papers with number 0501.

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Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: 17 Jan 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:vic:vicewp:0501
Note: ISSN 1485-6441
Contact details of provider: Postal: PO Box 1700, STN CSC, Victoria, BC, Canada, V8W 2Y2
Phone: (250)721-6197
Fax: (250)721-6214
Web page: http://web.uvic.ca/econ

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  1. Giles, David E..A. & Tedds, Lindsay M. & Werkneh, Gugsa, 2002. "The Canadian Underground and Measured Economies: Granger Causality Results," MPRA Paper 39786, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
  3. Robert J. Barro, 1988. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," NBER Working Papers 2588, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  5. Shantayanan Devarajan & Vinaya Swaroop & Heng-fu Zou, 1996. "The composition of public expenditure and economic growth," CEMA Working Papers 77, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
  6. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
  7. Barro, R.J., 1989. "Economic Growth In A Cross Section Of Countries," RCER Working Papers 201, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  8. Bharat Kolluri & Michael Panik & Mahmoud Wahab, 2000. "Government expenditure and economic growth: evidence from G7 countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(8), pages 1059-1068.
  9. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992. "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-63, September.
  10. Vogelsang, T.J., 1994. "On Testing for a Unit Root in the Presence of Additive Outliers," Papers 94-30, Cornell - Department of Economics.
  11. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  12. Khalifa Ghali, 1999. "Government size and economic growth: evidence from a multivariate cointegration analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(8), pages 975-987.
  13. Luis A. Rivera-Batiz & Paul M. Romer, 1990. "Economic Integration and Endogenous Growth," NBER Working Papers 3528, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Stephen Leybourne & Paul Newbold, 2003. "Spurious rejections by cointegration tests induced by structural breaks," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(9), pages 1117-1121.
  15. Seppo Pynnonen & Juuso Vataja, 2002. "Bootstrap testing for cointegration of international commodity prices," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(5), pages 637-647.
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