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The ARAR Error Model for Univariate Time Series and Distributed Lag Models

Author

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  • R. A. L. Carter

    (University of Western Ontario and University of Calgary)

  • A. Zellner

    (University of Chicago)

Abstract

We show that the use of prior information derived from former empirical findings and/or subject matter theory regarding the lag structure of the observable variables together with an AR process for the error terms can produce univariate and single equation models that are intuitively appealing, simple to implement, and work well in practice.

Suggested Citation

  • R. A. L. Carter & A. Zellner, 2002. "The ARAR Error Model for Univariate Time Series and Distributed Lag Models," UWO Department of Economics Working Papers 20025, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:uwo:uwowop:20025
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Zellner, Arnold & Geisel, Martin S, 1970. "Analysis of Distributed Lag Models with Application to Consumption Function Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 38(6), pages 865-888, November.
    2. Chib, Siddhartha, 1993. "Bayes regression with autoregressive errors : A Gibbs sampling approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 275-294, August.
    3. Zellner, Arnold & Hong, Chansik, 1989. "Forecasting international growth rates using Bayesian shrinkage and other procedures," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 183-202, January.
    4. Monahan, John F., 1983. "Fully Bayesian analysis of ARMA time series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 307-331, April.
    5. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    6. Pantula, Sastry G & Gonzalez-Farias, Graciela & Fuller, Wayne A, 1994. "A Comparison of Unit-Root Test Criteria," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 449-459, October.
    7. Schotman, Peter C & van Dijk, Herman K, 1991. "On Bayesian Routes to Unit Roots," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(4), pages 387-401, Oct.-Dec..
    8. Phillips, P C B, 1991. "To Criticize the Critics: An Objective Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Trends," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(4), pages 333-364, Oct.-Dec..
    9. Zellner, Arnold & Tobias, Justin, 2001. "Further Results on Bayesian Method of Moments Analysis of the Multiple Regression Model," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(1), pages 121-140, February.
    10. Pagan, Adrian, 1985. "Time Series Behaviour and Dynamic Specification," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 47(3), pages 199-211, August.
    11. Zellner, Arnold & Hong, Chansik & Min, Chung-ki, 1991. "Forecasting turning points in international output growth rates using Bayesian exponentially weighted autoregression, time-varying parameter, and pooling techniques," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1-2), pages 275-304.
    12. Paul A. Samuelson, 1939. "A Synthesis of the Principle of Acceleration and the Multiplier," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 47, pages 786-786.
    13. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    14. Wayne A. Fuller & James E. Martin, 1961. "The Effects of Autocorrelated Errors on the Statistical Estimation of Distributed Lag Models," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 43(1), pages 71-82.
    15. Nicholls, D F & Pagan, Adrian R & Terrell, R D, 1975. "The Estimation and Use of Models with Moving Average Disturbance Terms: A Survey," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 16(1), pages 113-134, February.
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