IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/unu/wpaper/dp2006-04.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Impact of Domestic and International Commodity Price Volatility on Agricultural Income Instability: Ghana, Vietnam and Peru

Author

Listed:
  • Rapsomanikis, George
  • Sarris, Alexander

Abstract

The extent to which commodity price volatility affects the income of producing households and their vulnerability to poverty and food insecurity depends on household diversification patterns and the degree of their exposure to markets. This article focuses on estimating agricultural income uncertainties for a number of different household types in Ghana, Vietnam and Peru. We develop explicit formulae for household income variance, and we combine information from household datasets and commodity price time-series in order to estimate the income uncertainty that emanates from price and production volatility under different scenarios of exposure to international and domestic markets shocks. Our results indicate that market and nonmarket uncertainties significantly affect the variability of agricultural income of households in these countries, and especially households that are specialized in a few commodities. However, it turns out that, under current policies, almost all of their income variability is due to domestic factors, with international prices not contributing much, at least in the short run. Wider exposure to international markets would increase the income variability of producers who have been subjected to domestic market stabilization policies in Ghana and Vietnam, while it would decrease it in the case of Peru.

Suggested Citation

  • Rapsomanikis, George & Sarris, Alexander, 2006. "The Impact of Domestic and International Commodity Price Volatility on Agricultural Income Instability: Ghana, Vietnam and Peru," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2006/04, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  • Handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:dp2006-04
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.wider.unu.edu/sites/default/files/dp2006-04.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rosenzweig, Mark R & Binswanger, Hans P, 1993. "Wealth, Weather Risk and the Composition and Profitability of Agricultural Investments," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(416), pages 56-78, January.
    2. Sarris, Alexander, 2002. "The demand for commodity insurance by developing country agricultural producers - theory and an application to cocoa in Ghana," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2887, The World Bank.
    3. Diaz-Bonilla, Eugenio & Thomas, Marcelle & Robinson, Sherman & Cattaneo, Andrea, 2000. "Food security and trade negotiations in the World Trade Organization," TMD discussion papers 59, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    4. Jonathan Morduch, 1995. "Income Smoothing and Consumption Smoothing," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 103-114, Summer.
    5. Fafchamps, Marcel & Udry, Christopher & Czukas, Katherine, 1998. "Drought and saving in West Africa: are livestock a buffer stock?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 273-305, April.
    6. Robert M. Townsend, 1995. "Consumption Insurance: An Evaluation of Risk-Bearing Systems in Low-Income Economies," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 83-102, Summer.
    7. Rosenzweig, Mark R & Wolpin, Kenneth I, 1993. "Credit Market Constraints, Consumption Smoothing, and the Accumulation of Durable Production Assets in Low-Income Countries: Investment in Bullocks in India," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(2), pages 223-244, April.
    8. Collier, Paul & Dehn, Jan, 2001. "Aid, shocks, and growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2688, The World Bank.
    9. Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211.
    10. Dehn,Jan, 2000. "Commodity price uncertainty in developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2426, The World Bank.
    11. Jalan, Jyotsna & Ravallion, Martin, 1999. "Are the poor less well insured? Evidence on vulnerability to income risk in rural China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 61-81, February.
    12. Zimmerman, Frederick J. & Carter, Michael R., 2003. "Asset smoothing, consumption smoothing and the reproduction of inequality under risk and subsistence constraints," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 233-260, August.
    13. Carter, Michael R, 1997. "Environment, Technology, and the Social Articulation of Risk in West African Agriculture," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 45(3), pages 557-590, April.
    14. Jan Dehn, 2000. "Commodity price uncertainty in developing countries," CSAE Working Paper Series 2000-12, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chamberlin, Jordan, 2008. "It's a small world after all: Defining smallholder agriculture in Ghana," IFPRI discussion papers 823, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. Hardeweg, Bernd & Wagener, Andreas & Waibel, Hermann, 2013. "A distributional approach to comparing vulnerability, applied to rural provinces in Thailand and Vietnam," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 53-65.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    commodity prices; risk; households;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:dp2006-04. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mauricio Roa Grisales). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/widerfi.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.