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Trade exposure and income volatility in cash crop exporting developing countries
[[Ouverture commerciale et volatilité du revenu dans les pays en développement exportateurs de produits primaires agricoles]]

Author

Listed:
  • François Bourguignon

    (Inconnu)

  • Sylvie Lambert

    (LEA - Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique)

  • Akiko Suwa-Eisenmann

    (LEA - Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique)

Abstract

La volatilité des prix des matières premières sur le marché mondial génère un risque macroéconomique agrégé pour de nombreux pays en développement dont le revenu dépend crucialement de l'exportation de quelques produits agricoles. Les indicateurs de revenu des ménages devraient donc prendre en compte la prime de risque correspondante, en particulier pour les ménages proches du niveau de subsistance. Prendre en compte le risque dans la répartition des revenus changerait le point de vue que l'on peut avoir sur le classement des différentes politiques économiques souvent utilisées pour atténuer l'impact domestique de la volatilité des prix internationaux. L'article donne des exemples illustratifs simulés à partir d'un modèle d'équilibre général avec des prix aléatoires pour les cultures d'exportation. Les résultats montrent que des politiques qui ont un effet similaire en terme de revenu espéré peuvent avoir des impacts très différents en matière de variance du revenu.

Suggested Citation

  • François Bourguignon & Sylvie Lambert & Akiko Suwa-Eisenmann, 2004. "Trade exposure and income volatility in cash crop exporting developing countries [[Ouverture commerciale et volatilité du revenu dans les pays en développement exportateurs de produits primaires ag," Post-Print hal-02683314, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02683314
    DOI: 10.1093/erae/31.3.369
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    Cited by:

    1. Sulamaa, Pekka & Widgrén, Mika, 2005. "Asian Regionalism versus Global Free Trade: A Simulation Study on Economic Effects," Discussion Papers 985, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    2. Charles, Michael B. & Ryan, Rachel & Oloruntoba, Richard & Heidt, Tania von der & Ryan, Neal, 2009. "The EU-Africa Energy Partnership: Towards a mutually beneficial renewable transport energy alliance?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5546-5556, December.
    3. Monika Verma & Thomas W. Hertel & Ernesto Valenzuela, 2011. "Are The Poverty Effects of Trade Policies Invisible?," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 25(2), pages 190-211, May.
    4. Charles, Michael B. & Ryan, Rachel & Ryan, Neal & Oloruntoba, Richard, 2007. "Public policy and biofuels: The way forward?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5737-5746, November.
    5. Valenzuela, Ernesto & Hertel, Thomas W., 2006. "Poverty Vulnerability and Trade Policy: Are the Likely Impacts Discernable?," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21397, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    6. Mihai MUTASCU & Nicolae-Bogdan IANC & Albert LESSOUA, 2021. "Public debt and inequality in Sub-Saharan Africa: the case of EMCCA and WAEMU countries," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2911, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    7. George Rapsomanikis & Alexander Sarris, 2006. "The Impact of Domestic and International Commodity Price Volatility on Agricultural Income Instability: Ghana, Vietnam and Peru," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2006-04, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    8. Pierre-Emmanuel Darpeix, 2019. "Literature review on the consequences of food price spikes and price volatility," Working Papers hal-02072329, HAL.
    9. May, Daniel E., 2013. "PR - Export Instability When International Agricultural Markets Operate Under Oligopoly," 19th Congress, Warsaw, Poland, 2013 345682, International Farm Management Association.
    10. Antonio Lopolito & Maurizio Prosperi & Roberta Sisto, 2009. "Socio-Economic Implications Of The Development Of A Bio-Refinery: An Analysis With Fuzzy Cognitive Maps," Quaderni DSEMS 19-2009, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche, Matematiche e Statistiche, Universita' di Foggia.
    11. Pierre-Emmanuel Darpeix, 2019. "Literature review on the consequences of food price spikes and price volatility," PSE Working Papers hal-02072329, HAL.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    PAYS EN DEVELOPPEMENT; Production et marchés;

    JEL classification:

    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models

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