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FDI Waves, Waves of Neglect of Political Risk

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  • Pierre-Guillaume Méon
  • Khalid Sekkat

Abstract

Studies of the impact of local political risk on foreign direct investment inflows overlook that worldwide FDI comes in waves. Using a simple model we show that the impact of political risk on FDI inflows is likely to be weaker, the larger the worldwide amount of FDI, which may question standard estimates and their policy implications. Using a large sample of developing and developed economies, we estimate the sensitivity of the distribution of FDI inflows across countries, to the local political risk. We find that it is a decreasing function of the worldwide amount of FDI. This finding has been upheld after many robustness checks.

Suggested Citation

  • Pierre-Guillaume Méon & Khalid Sekkat, 2012. "FDI Waves, Waves of Neglect of Political Risk," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/132815, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  • Handle: RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/132815
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Vithessonthi, Chaiporn, 2016. "Capital investment, internationalization, and firm performance: Evidence from Southeast Asian countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, pages 393-403.
    2. Chenaf-Nicet, Dalila & Rougier, Eric, 2016. "The effect of macroeconomic instability on FDI flows: A gravity estimation of the impact of regional integration in the case of Euro-Mediterranean agreements," International Economics, Elsevier, pages 66-91.
    3. Kamel ABDELLAH ( GREThA, CNRS, UMR 5113 & ISG, UNIVERSITE DE TUNIS) & Dalila NICET-CHENAF (GREThA, CNRS, UMR 5113) & Eric ROUGIER (GREThA, CNRS, UMR 5113), 2012. "FDI and macroeconomic volatility: A close-up on the source countries," Cahiers du GREThA 2012-21, Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée.
    4. Martijn Burger & Elena Ianchovichina & Bob Rijkers, 2016. "Risky Business: Political Instability and Sectoral Greenfield Foreign Direct Investment in the Arab World," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 30(2), pages 306-331.
    5. Fujii, Hidemichi & Managi, Shunsuke, 2015. "Optimal production resource reallocation for CO2 emissions reduction in manufacturing sectors," MPRA Paper 64703, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Marek Dabrowski & Luc DeWulf, 2013. "Economic Development, Trade and Investment in the Eastern and Southern Mediterranean Region," CASE Network Reports 0111, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    7. Schmaljohann, Maya, 2013. "Enhancing Foreign Direct Investment via Transparency? Evaluating the Effects of the EITI on FDI," Working Papers 538, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    8. Elena Ianchovichina & Maros Ivanic, 2016. "Economic Effects of the Syrian War and the Spread of the Islamic State on the Levant," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(10), pages 1584-1627, October.
    9. Schmaljohann, Maya, 2013. "Enhancing Foreign Direct Investment via Transparency? Evaluating the Effects of the EITI on FDI," Working Papers 0538, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    10. Dalila Nicet-Chenaf & Eric Rougier, 2014. "Source and host country volatility and FDI : A gravity analysis of European investment to Middle East and North Africa," Larefi Working Papers 1405, Larefi, Université Bordeaux 4.
    11. repec:msm:wpaper:2014/23 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Dalila NICET-CHENAF & Eric ROUGIER, 2014. "Output Volatility And Fdi To Middle East And North African Countries: A Close-Up On The Source Countries," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 40, pages 139-165.
    13. Khalid Sekkat, 2012. "Manufactured Exports and FDI in the MED-11 Countries: Recent Evolution, Determinants and Prospects," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 432, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    14. Kant, Chander, 2016. "Are institutions in developing countries malleable?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 272-289.
    15. repec:eee:riibaf:v:42:y:2017:i:c:p:312-320 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Foreign direct investment; institutions; political risk; governance.;

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements

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