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Strategic Technology Adoption and Market Dynamics as Option Games

  • Flavia Cortelezzi

    ()

  • Giovanni Villani

    ()

Aim of this paper is to analyse the equilibrium strategies of two firms investing in a new technology, when the probability of successful implementation is uncertain and market shares are asymmetric. In particular, we are able to consider three key feature of a new technology adoption. First, it is, at least partially, irreversible. Second, once realized, there is uncertainty about the probability of a successful implementation. Third, the profit flow generated by such an investment is subject to uncertainty according to the evolution of demand function. The first firm to enter the market sustaines the investment cost earlier, but can benefit of a higher market share with respect to the competitor. The follower has just to decide if and when realize the investment. He benefits from the resolution of uncertainty, but he suffers of a reduction in its market share. Using the method of option pricing theory, we address this issue at two levels. First, we model the investment decision of a non-cooperative firm (decentralised case) as a dynamic stochastic game. Then, we solve for the sequential monopolist as a benchmark case. We find the interaction of pre-emption and uncertainty can actually hasten, rather than delay, investment, contrary to the usual presumption.

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Paper provided by Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche, Matematiche e Statistiche, Universita' di Foggia in its series Quaderni DSEMS with number 14-2007.

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Date of creation: Jul 2007
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Handle: RePEc:ufg:qdsems:14-2007
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  1. Williams, Joseph T, 1991. "Real Estate Development as an Option," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 191-208, June.
  2. Robin Mason & Helen Weeds, 2000. "Networks, Options and Preemption," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1721, Econometric Society.
  3. Weeds, H., 2000. "Strategic Delay in a Real Optimna Model of R&D Competition," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 576, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  4. Merton, Robert C., 1975. "Option pricing when underlying stock returns are discontinuous," Working papers 787-75., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  5. repec:fth:tilbur:9992 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Dutta, P.K. & Rustichini, A., 1991. "A Theory of Stopping Time Games with Applications to Product Innovations and Asset Sales," Discussion Papers 1991_35, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
  7. Dennis R. Capozza & Yuming Li, 2001. "Residential Investment and Interest Rates: An Empirical Test of Land Development as a Real Option," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 29(3), pages 503-519.
  8. repec:dgr:kubcen:199992 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Quigg, Laura, 1993. " Empirical Testing of Real Option-Pricing Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(2), pages 621-40, June.
  10. Capozza, Dennis & Li, Yuming, 1994. "The Intensity and Timing of Investment: The Case of Land," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 889-904, September.
  11. repec:dgr:kubcen:200052 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Grenadier, Steven R. & Weiss, Allen M., 1997. "Investment in technological innovations: An option pricing approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 397-416, June.
  13. Weeds, H., 1999. "Sleeping Patents and Computsory Licensing: An Options Analysis," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 577, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
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