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Residential Investment and Interest Rates: An Empirical Test of Land Development as a Real Option

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  • Dennis R. Capozza
  • Yuming Li

Abstract

In real options models, investment can increase under some conditions when interest rates rise. This research tests for these positive interest rate responses in the context of the Capozza-Li model of land development. In the model variable capital intensity is a sufficient condition for positive responses to interest rates that can occur when growth rates are high or uncertainty is high. The empirical analysis uses a panel data set on residential investment in the 1980s and finds that 25-50% of the sample lies in the positive response region. Copyright 2001 by the American Real Estate and Urban Ecopnomics Assocaition.

Suggested Citation

  • Dennis R. Capozza & Yuming Li, 2001. "Residential Investment and Interest Rates: An Empirical Test of Land Development as a Real Option," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 29(3), pages 503-519.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:29:y:2001:i:3:p:503-519
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jeffrey Stokes, 2012. "The value of the option to preserve farm real estate," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 36(1), pages 162-175, January.
    2. Tan Lee & Jyh-Bang Jou, 2010. "Urban Spatial Development: a Real Options Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 161-187, February.
    3. Yang, Zan & Wang, Songtao & Campbell, Robert, 2010. "Monetary policy and regional price boom in Sweden," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 865-879, November.
    4. Cunningham, Christopher R., 2006. "House price uncertainty, timing of development, and vacant land prices: Evidence for real options in Seattle," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 1-31, January.
    5. John Clapp & Katsiaryna Bardos & Tingyu Zhou, 2014. "Expansions and Contractions of Major US Shopping Centers," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 16-56, January.
    6. Flavia Cortelezzi & Pierpaolo Giannoccolo & Giovanni Villani, 2011. "Strategic Urban Development Under Uncertainty," The IUP Journal of Financial Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(4), pages 7-27, December.
    7. repec:kap:jrefec:v:55:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s11146-016-9560-5 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Yuming Li & Laura Yue Liu, 2014. "Wealth, Labor Income and House Prices," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 17(3), pages 394-413.
    9. Robert Grovenstein & James Kau & Henry Munneke, 2011. "Development Value: A Real Options Approach Using Empirical Data," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 321-335, October.
    10. Ming-Cheng WU & I-Cheng LIN & Yi-Ting HUANG & Chang-Rong, 2015. "Forecasting Prices Of Presale Houses: A Real Option Approach," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 143-158, March.
    11. Shi, Song & Yang, Zan & Tripe, David & Zhang, Huan, 2015. "Uncertainty and new apartment price setting: A real options approach," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 35(PB), pages 574-591.
    12. Flavia Cortelezzi & Giovanni Villani, 2007. "Strategic Technology Adoption and Market Dynamics as Option Games," Quaderni DSEMS 14-2007, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche, Matematiche e Statistiche, Universita' di Foggia.
    13. Gang-Zhi Fan & Zsuzsa Huszár & Weina Zhang, 2013. "The Relationships between Real Estate Price and Expected Financial Asset Risk and Return: Theory and Empirical Evidence," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 568-595, May.
    14. Robert Fourt & Gianluca Marcato & Charles Ward, 2007. "Real Option Pricing in Mixed-use Development Projects," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2007-09, Henley Business School, Reading University.
    15. Yuming Fu & Maarten Jennen, 2009. "Office Construction in Singapore and Hong Kong: Testing Real Option Implications," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 39-58, January.
    16. Lefebvre, Marianne & Gomez y Paloma, Sergio & Viaggi, Davide, 2014. "EU farmers' intentions to invest in 2014-2020: complementarity between asset classes," 2014 International Congress, August 26-29, 2014, Ljubljana, Slovenia 182737, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    17. Andrea Beccarini, 2007. "Investment sensitivity to interest rates in an uncertain context: is a positive relationship possible?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 223-234, September.

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