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Macroeconomic Rationality and Lucas' Misperceptions Model: Further Evidence from Forty-One Countries

  • Nicholas Aspergis

    (University of Macedonia)

  • Stephen M. Miller

    (University of Nevada, Las Vegas, and University of Connecticut)

Several researchers have examined Lucas's misperceptions model as well as various propositions derived from it within a cross-section empirical framework. The cross-section approach imposes a single monetary policy regime for the entire period. Our paper innovates on existing tests of those rational expectations propositions by allowing the simultaneous effect of monetary and short run aggregate supply (oil price) shocks on output behavior and the employment of advanced panel econometric techniques. Our empirical findings, for a sample of 41 countries over 1949 to 1999, provide evidence in favor of the majority of rational expectations propositions.

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Paper provided by University of Connecticut, Department of Economics in its series Working papers with number 2003-26.

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Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2003
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Journal of Economics and Business, May-June 2004
Handle: RePEc:uct:uconnp:2003-26
Contact details of provider: Postal: University of Connecticut 365 Fairfield Way, Unit 1063 Storrs, CT 06269-1063
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Web page: http://www.econ.uconn.edu/

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  1. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1996. "Nobel Lecture: Monetary Neutrality," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(4), pages 661-82, August.
  2. Zvi Hercowitz, 1980. "Anticipated Inflation, the Frequency of Transactions, and the Slope of the Phillips Curve," NBER Working Papers 0518, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Perron, P., 1986. "Trends and Random Walks in Macroeconomic Time Series: Further Evidence From a New Approach," Cahiers de recherche 8650, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  4. Leamer, Edward E, 1983. "Let's Take the Con Out of Econometrics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 31-43, March.
  5. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May.
  6. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
  7. Froyen, Richard T & Waud, Roger N, 1984. "The Changing Relationship between Aggregate Price and Output: The British Experience," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 51(201), pages 53-67, February.
  8. Jung, W. S., 1985. "Output-inflation tradeoffs in industrial and developing countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 101-113.
  9. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
  10. Abrams, Richard K. & Froyen, Richard T. & Waud, Roger N., 1983. "The variability of output-inflation tradeoffs," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 151-171, February.
  11. Kaul, Gautam, 1990. "Monetary Regimes and the Relation between Stock Returns and Inflationary Expectations," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(03), pages 307-321, September.
  12. Alberro, Jose, 1981. "The Lucas hypothesis on the Phillips Curve : Further international evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 239-250.
  13. Edmund S. Phelps, 1968. "Money-Wage Dynamics and Labor-Market Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76, pages 678.
  14. Poirier, Dale J, 1991. "A Bayesian View of Nominal Money and Real Output through a New Classical Macroeconomic Window," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(2), pages 125-48, April.
  15. Attfield, Clifford L F & Duck, Nigel W, 1983. "The Influence of Unanticipated Money Growth on Real Output: Some Cross-Country Estimates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 15(4), pages 442-54, November.
  16. Karras, Georgios, 1996. "Why are the effects of money-supply shocks asymmetric? Convex aggregate supply or "pushing on a string"?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 605-619.
  17. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
  18. Satyajit Chatterjee, 1999. "Real business cycles: a legacy of countercyclical policies?," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Jan, pages 17-27.
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