IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/uct/uconnp/2003-26.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Macroeconomic Rationality and Lucas' Misperceptions Model: Further Evidence from Forty-One Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Nicholas Aspergis

    (University of Macedonia)

  • Stephen M. Miller

    (University of Nevada, Las Vegas, and University of Connecticut)

Abstract

Several researchers have examined Lucas's misperceptions model as well as various propositions derived from it within a cross-section empirical framework. The cross-section approach imposes a single monetary policy regime for the entire period. Our paper innovates on existing tests of those rational expectations propositions by allowing the simultaneous effect of monetary and short run aggregate supply (oil price) shocks on output behavior and the employment of advanced panel econometric techniques. Our empirical findings, for a sample of 41 countries over 1949 to 1999, provide evidence in favor of the majority of rational expectations propositions.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicholas Aspergis & Stephen M. Miller, 2003. "Macroeconomic Rationality and Lucas' Misperceptions Model: Further Evidence from Forty-One Countries," Working papers 2003-26, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:uct:uconnp:2003-26
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://web2.uconn.edu/economics/working/2003-26.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1996. "Nobel Lecture: Monetary Neutrality," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(4), pages 661-682, August.
    2. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    3. Leamer, Edward E, 1983. "Let's Take the Con Out of Econometrics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 31-43.
    4. Perron, Pierre, 1988. "Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series : Further evidence from a new approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 297-332.
    5. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
    6. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    7. Froyen, Richard T & Waud, Roger N, 1984. "The Changing Relationship between Aggregate Price and Output: The British Experience," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 51(201), pages 53-67, February.
    8. Abrams, Richard K. & Froyen, Richard T. & Waud, Roger N., 1983. "The variability of output-inflation tradeoffs," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 151-171, February.
    9. Edward E. Leamer, 1982. "Let's Take the Con Out of Econometrics," UCLA Economics Working Papers 239, UCLA Department of Economics.
    10. Kaul, Gautam, 1990. "Monetary Regimes and the Relation between Stock Returns and Inflationary Expectations," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(03), pages 307-321, September.
    11. Satyajit Chatterjee, 1999. "Real business cycles: a legacy of countercyclical policies?," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Jan, pages 17-27.
    12. Attfield, Clifford L F & Duck, Nigel W, 1983. "The Influence of Unanticipated Money Growth on Real Output: Some Cross-Country Estimates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 15(4), pages 442-454, November.
    13. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", pages 125-132.
    14. Hercowitz, Zvi, 1983. "Anticipated Inflation, the Frequency of Transactions, and the Slope of the Phillips Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 15(2), pages 139-154, May.
    15. Edmund S. Phelps, 1968. "Money-Wage Dynamics and Labor-Market Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76, pages 678-678.
    16. Jung, W. S., 1985. "Output-inflation tradeoffs in industrial and developing countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, pages 101-113.
    17. Poirier, Dale J, 1991. "A Bayesian View of Nominal Money and Real Output through a New Classical Macroeconomic Window," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(2), pages 125-148, April.
    18. Karras, Georgios, 1996. "Why are the effects of money-supply shocks asymmetric? Convex aggregate supply or "pushing on a string"?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, pages 605-619.
    19. Alberro, Jose, 1981. "The Lucas hypothesis on the Phillips Curve : Further international evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 239-250.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cone, Thomas E., 2008. "Optimal information acquisition and monetary policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, pages 1370-1389.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Lucas's misperception model; rational expectations propositions; real shocks; panel data;

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian
    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:uct:uconnp:2003-26. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mark McConnel). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/deuctus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.