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Age-Profile Estimates of the Relationship Between Economic Growth and Child Health

Author

Listed:
  • Joseph Cummins

    (Department of Economics, University of California Riverside)

  • Anaka Aiyar

Abstract

Based largely on the analysis of the same underlying data, recently published papers have presented estimates that the association between economic growth and child undernutrition in developing countries is either strong and robust, or weak to nonexistent. We provide clarity on both the magnitude of the association and the underlying econometric problem. Focusing on child growth faltering as a process that unfolds over the first several years of life, we provide new evidence tracing out the relationship between macroeconomic trends and the trajectory of child growth through age 5. Using two novel regression models that each harness different kinds of within- and between-country variation, and data on over 600,000 children from 38 countries over more than 20 years, our estimates of the association are small but precise, and are consistent across both estimators. We estimate that a $10\%$ increase in GDP around the time of a child's birth is associated with a decrease in the rate of loss of HAZ of about 0.002sd per month over the first two years of life. This generates a cumulative effect of around 0.04sd by a child's third birthday and the magnitude of the correlation largely persists through age 5. Our models are derived from both economic and biological theory and provide a new empirical framework for researchers interested in investigating the ecological-level determinants of child growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Joseph Cummins & Anaka Aiyar, 2017. "Age-Profile Estimates of the Relationship Between Economic Growth and Child Health," Working Papers 201812, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2018.
  • Handle: RePEc:ucr:wpaper:201812
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Aiyar, Anaka & Cummins, Joseph R., 2021. "An age profile perspective on two puzzles in global child health: The Indian Enigma & economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    2. Duncan Webb, 2022. "Critical Periods in Cognitive and Socioemotional Development: Evidence from Weather Shocks in Indonesia," PSE Working Papers halshs-03542607, HAL.
    3. Duncan Webb, 2022. "Critical Periods in Cognitive and Socioemotional Development: Evidence from Weather Shocks in Indonesia," Working Papers halshs-03542607, HAL.
    4. Anaka Aiyar & Joseph Cummins, 2020. "An Age Profile Perspective on Two Puzzles in Global Child Health: the Indian Enigma and Economic Growth," Working Papers 202019, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    anthropometrics; child health; economic growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I15 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Economic Development
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

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