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Estimating and forecasting generalized fractional Long memory stochastic volatility models

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  • Shelton Peiris

    (School of Mathematics and Statistics University of Sydney, Australia.)

  • Manabu Asai

    (Faculty of Economics Soka University, Japan.)

  • Michael McAleer

    (Department of Quantitative Finance National Tsing Hua University, Taiwan and Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics Erasmus University Rotterdam and Tinbergen Institute, The Netherlands and Department of Quantitative Economics Complutense University of Madrid, Spain.)

Abstract

In recent years fractionally differenced processes have received a great deal of attention due to its flexibility in financial applications with long memory. This paper considers a class of models generated by Gegenbauer polynomials, incorporating the long memory in stochastic volatility (SV) components in order to develop the General Long Memory SV (GLMSV) model. We examine the statistical properties of the new model, suggest using the spectral likelihood estimation for long memory processes, and investigate the finite sample properties via Monte Carlo experiments. We apply the model to three exchange rate return series. Overall, the results of the out-of-sample forecasts show the adequacy of the new GLMSV model.

Suggested Citation

  • Shelton Peiris & Manabu Asai & Michael McAleer, 2016. "Estimating and forecasting generalized fractional Long memory stochastic volatility models," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2016-08, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucm:doicae:1608
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stochastic volatility; GARCH models; Gegenbauer Polynomial; Long Memory; Spectral Likelihood; Estimation; Forecasting.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

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