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When one side stays home: A joint model of turnout and vote choice

Author

Listed:
  • Johan A Elkink

    (School of Politics and International Relations, University College Dublin)

  • Sarah Parlane

    (School of Economics, University College Dublin)

  • Thomas Sattler

    (Universite de Geneve)

Abstract

Most existing studies of referendums examine voter turnout and their vote choice separately. Our theoretical model suggests that this is problematic. The model predicts that voters who generally prefer one of the two possible referendum outcomes, but who are relatively uncertain about the consequences of their preferred option, tend to abstain from voting. Greater uncertainty about a referendum option not only reduces its value, but also, for more "distant" voters, the value of participating. Uncertainty, thus, has a double effect: potential supporters of one referendum option are less likely to vote; and citizens who vote are less likely to support this option. We use data from the 'Brexit' vote to show how individual assessments of uncertainty about the two-options affect turnout and the vote. Our empirical analyses provide support for our theoretical model.

Suggested Citation

  • Johan A Elkink & Sarah Parlane & Thomas Sattler, 2020. "When one side stays home: A joint model of turnout and vote choice," Working Papers 202012, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
  • Handle: RePEc:ucd:wpaper:202012
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

    referendums; turnout; uncertainty; European integration; electoral behavior and Brexit;
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