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The ex-ante effects of non-contributory pensions in Colombia and Peru

Author

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  • Javier Olivera

    (UCD Geary Institute, PEARL Institute for Research on Social Inequality, University of Luxembourg)

  • Blanca Zuluaga

    (Department of Economics, Icesi University)

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to study the ex-ante effects of the implementation of a Non Contributory Pension (NCP) program in Colombia and Peru. Relying on household survey data, we simulate the potential impact of the transfer on poverty, inequality, fiscal cost, and the probability of affiliation to the contributory pension system. This last effect is the most direct behavioural effect one can expect from the implementation of a NCP scheme. For the behavioural response we estimate a Nested Logit Model. Our results show that a NCP in Colombia and Peru contributes to the reduction of poverty and inequality among the elderly, particularly in rural areas at affordable fiscal costs. Furthermore, there is not a large impact on the probability of affiliation to contributory pensions when the program is targeted to the poor (and extreme poor), with the exception of Peruvian women.

Suggested Citation

  • Javier Olivera & Blanca Zuluaga, 2013. "The ex-ante effects of non-contributory pensions in Colombia and Peru," Working Papers 201314, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
  • Handle: RePEc:ucd:wpaper:201314
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    4. de Carvalho Filho, Irineu Evangelista, 2008. "Old-age benefits and retirement decisions of rural elderly in Brazil," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 129-146, April.
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    10. Jean-Jacques Dethier & Pierre Pestieau & Rabia Ali, 2011. "The impact of a minimum pension on old age poverty and its budgetary cost. Evidence from Latin America," REVISTA DE ECONOMÍA DEL ROSARIO, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jorge Alonso & Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes & Laura Juárez, 2016. "The Effect of Non-contributory Pensions on Saving in Mexico," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 7861, Inter-American Development Bank.
    2. Javier Olivera & Jhonatan Clausen, 2014. "Las características del adulto mayor peruano y las políticas de protección social," Revista Economía, Fondo Editorial - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, vol. 37(73), pages 75-113.
    3. Jorge Alonso & Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes & Laura Juárez, 2016. "The Effect of Non-contributory Pensions on Saving in Mexico," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 95976, Inter-American Development Bank.
    4. repec:spr:izamig:v:7:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1186_s40176-017-0103-5 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    non-contributory pensions; social security; old-age; poverty;

    JEL classification:

    • D30 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - General
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

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