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The opposite Cycles of Laws and Decrees


  • Francesco Lagona

    (DIPES, University Roma Tre, Italy)

  • Antonello Maruotti

    (DIPES, University Roma Tre, Italy)

  • Fabio Padovano

    (CREM-CNRS and Condorcet Center for Political Economy, Université Rennes, 1, France and DIPES, University Roma Tre, Italy)


The present study aims to test Meltzer and Richard’s (1981) hypothesis that lower-income individuals vote for candidates who favor higher taxes and more redistribution. Assuming that left-wing parties advocate a general increase in taxation, we estimate a vote function for the French Cantonal elections. We show clear-cut evidence that an increasing proportion of voters receiving social assistance raises the number of votes in favor of left-wing parties. This result highlights the importance of including redistribution aspects when estimating a vote function.

Suggested Citation

  • Francesco Lagona & Antonello Maruotti & Fabio Padovano, 2012. "The opposite Cycles of Laws and Decrees," Economics Working Paper from Condorcet Center for political Economy at CREM-CNRS 2012-01-ccr, Condorcet Center for political Economy.
  • Handle: RePEc:tut:cccrwp:2012-01-ccr

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Francesco Lagona & Fabio Padovano, 2008. "The political legislation cycle," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 134(3), pages 201-229, March.
    2. S. Rabe-Hesketh & A. Skrondal, 2001. "Parameterization of Multivariate Random Effects Models for Categorical Data," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 1256-1263, December.
    3. Rabe-Hesketh, Sophia & Skrondal, Anders & Pickles, Andrew, 2005. "Maximum likelihood estimation of limited and discrete dependent variable models with nested random effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 128(2), pages 301-323, October.
    4. Galasso, Vincenzo & Nannicini, Tommaso, 2011. "Competing on Good Politicians," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 105(01), pages 79-99, February.
    5. Padovano, Fabio & Venturi, Larissa, 2001. "Wars of Attrition in Italian Government Coalitions and Fiscal Performance: 1948-1994," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 109(1-2), pages 15-54, October.
    6. Wittman, Donald A., 1997. "The Myth of Democratic Failure," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226904238, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fabio Padovano & Ilaria Petrarca, 2013. "When and how politicians take ‘scandalous’ decisions?," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 336-351, December.
    2. Josef Brechler & Adam Geršl, 2014. "Political legislation cycle in the Czech Republic," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 137-153, June.
    3. Fabio Padovano, 2013. "Are we witnessing a paradigm shift in the analysis of political competition?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 156(3), pages 631-651, September.

    More about this item


    Economic theory of legislation - Multilevel models - Poisson regression - Political legislation cycle - Random effects - Voters - Special interest groups;

    JEL classification:

    • H61 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Budget; Budget Systems
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • C49 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Other

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