The Probability of Casting a Decisive Vote: From IC to IAC trhough Ehrhart's Polynomials and Strong Mixing
The main purpose of this paper is to estimate the probability of casting a decisive vote for a class or random electorate models encompassing the celebrated IC and IAC models. The emphasis is on the impact of correlation across votes on the order of magnitude of this event. Our proof techniques use arguments from probability theory on one hand and the geometry of convex polytopes on the other hand.
|Date of creation:||Jun 2012|
|Date of revision:||Apr 2014|
|Contact details of provider:|| Phone: (+33) 5 61 12 86 23|
Web page: http://www.tse-fr.eu/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Michel Le Breton & Dominique Lepelley, 2014.
"Une analyse de la loi électorale du 29 juin 1820,"
- Le Breton, Michel & Lepelley, Dominique, 2012. "Une Analyse de la Loi Electorale du 29 Juin 1820," TSE Working Papers 12-312, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
- Le Breton, Michel & Lepelley, Dominique, 2012. "Une Analyse de la Loi Electorale du 29 Juin 1820," IDEI Working Papers 721, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
- Romano, Joseph P. & Wolf, Michael, 2000. "A more general central limit theorem for m-dependent random variables with unbounded m," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 115-124, April.
- Evren, Özgür, 2012.
"Altruism and voting: A large-turnout result that does not rely on civic duty or cooperative behavior,"
Journal of Economic Theory,
Elsevier, vol. 147(6), pages 2124-2157.
- Özgür Evren, 2012. "Altruism and Voting: A Large-Turnout Result That Does not Rely on Civic Duty or Cooperative Behavior," Working Papers w0173, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
- Dominique Lepelley & Ahmed Louichi & Hatem Smaoui, 2008.
"On Ehrhart polynomials and probability calculations in voting theory,"
Social Choice and Welfare,
Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 30(3), pages 363-383, April.
- Dominique Lepelley & Ahmed Louichi & Hatem Smaoui, 2007. "On Ehrhart polynomials and probability calculations in voting theory," Post-Print hal-01245310, HAL.
- Dominique Lepelley & Ahmed Louichi & Hatem Smaoui, 2006. "On Ehrhart Polynomials and Probability Calculations in Voting Theory," Economics Working Paper Archive (University of Rennes 1 & University of Caen) 200610, Center for Research in Economics and Management (CREM), University of Rennes 1, University of Caen and CNRS.
- Nathaniel Beck, 1975. "A note on the probability of a tied election," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 75-79, September.
- Berg, Sven, 1990. "The Probability of Casting a Decisive Vote: The Effects of a Caucus," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 64(1), pages 73-92, January.
- Robert J. Weber, 1995. "Approval Voting," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(1), pages 39-49, Winter.
- Roger B. Myerson, 1994.
"Population Uncertainty and Poisson Games,"
1102R, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Chamberlain, Gary & Rothschild, Michael, 1981. "A note on the probability of casting a decisive vote," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 152-162, August.
- Kuga, Kiyoshi & Nagatani, Hiroaki, 1974. "Voter Antagonism and the Paradox of Voting," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 42(6), pages 1045-1067, November.
- Wilson, Mark C. & Pritchard, Geoffrey, 2007. "Probability calculations under the IAC hypothesis," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 244-256, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tse:wpaper:25866. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.