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The Probability of Casting a Decisive Vote: From IC to IAC trhough Ehrhart's Polynomials and Strong Mixing

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  • Le Breton, Michel
  • Lepelley, Dominique
  • Smaoui, Hatem

Abstract

The main purpose of this paper is to estimate the probability of casting a decisive vote for a class or random electorate models encompassing the celebrated IC and IAC models. The emphasis is on the impact of correlation across votes on the order of magnitude of this event. Our proof techniques use arguments from probability theory on one hand and the geometry of convex polytopes on the other hand.

Suggested Citation

  • Le Breton, Michel & Lepelley, Dominique & Smaoui, Hatem, 2012. "The Probability of Casting a Decisive Vote: From IC to IAC trhough Ehrhart's Polynomials and Strong Mixing," TSE Working Papers 12-313, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE), revised Apr 2014.
  • Handle: RePEc:tse:wpaper:25866
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Elections; Ehrhart Polynomials; Power Measurement; Voting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D71 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Social Choice; Clubs; Committees; Associations
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

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