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The Adjusted Solow Residual and Asset Returns

  • Jeong-Joon Lee

    (Department of Economics, Towson University)

The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of a measured aggregate productivity shock on asset returns. To achieve this, a simple equilibrium business cycle model is presented to show that an aggregate productivity shock can be identified as a factor affecting asset returns. The paper uses the Solow residual to measure productivity changes, but deviates from standard practice by incorporating variations in capital utilization rates. The paper first develops the theoretical link between productivity shocks and asset returns with no adjustment costs, and then tests that link with the two measures of productivity, the Solow residual with and without variation in capital utilization. Results based on U.S post-war data show significant differences in the dynamic impacts of these two measures of productivity. The VAR evidence suggests that technology changes, measured with variation in capital utilization, have a delayed impact on asset returns, a distinct finding. Finally, policy implications of the findings are discussed.

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File URL: http://www.cirje.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/research/dp/2006/2006cf396.pdf
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Paper provided by CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo in its series CIRJE F-Series with number CIRJE-F-396.

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Length: 46 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:tky:fseres:2006cf396
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  18. John Moore & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, . "Credit Cycles," Discussion Papers 1995-5, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
  19. Alain Paquet & Benoit Robidoux, 1997. "Issues on the Measurement of the Solow Residual and the Testing of its Exogeneity: a Tale of Two Countries," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 51, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
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