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Inflation in the Time of Corona and War: The plight of the developing economies

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  • Servaas Storm

    (Delft University of Technology)

Abstract

Reliance on established macroeconomic thinking is not of much use in trying to understand what to do in response to the constellation of forces driving up inflation and slowing down growth in these times of COVID-19 and war. This paper attempts to reduce the heat and turn up the light in the debate on the return of high inflation and looming stagflation by providing evidence-based answers to key (policy) questions concerning the return of high inflation: How close are the parallels between the current conjuncture and the 1970s? What are the differences? Does what is currently happening already amount to stagflation? Can central bankers engineer a 'soft landing' of their economies or are we already poised for a deep (global) recession? What are the likely spill-over effects of monetary tightening in the US on the emerging economies? What, if anything, can we learn from the monetary and fiscal policy experiences and policy mistakes of the 1970s? And, finally, are there alternative, less socially costly, ways to bring inflation down?

Suggested Citation

  • Servaas Storm, 2022. "Inflation in the Time of Corona and War: The plight of the developing economies," Working Papers Series inetwp192, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
    • Handle: RePEc:thk:wpaper:inetwp192
    DOI: 10.36687/inetwp192
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Pablo G. Bortz & Gabriel Michelena & Fernando Toledo, 2020. "A Gathering of Storms: The Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on the Balance of Payments of Emerging Markets and Developing Economies (EMDEs)," International Journal of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(4), pages 318-335, November.
    2. Ray C. Fair, 2021. "What do price equations say about future inflation?," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 56(3), pages 118-128, July.
    3. Olivier Blanchard, 2018. "Should We Reject the Natural Rate Hypothesis?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(1), pages 97-120, Winter.
    4. Javier Cravino & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2017. "The Distributional Consequences of Large Devaluations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(11), pages 3477-3509, November.
    5. Dovern, Jonas & Zuber, Christopher, 2020. "How economic crises damage potential output – Evidence from the Great Recession," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
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    Cited by:

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    2. Isik, Sayim & Mert, Mehmet & Ulug, Mehmet, 2025. "Profit produced by post-pandemic inflation: Evidence from an emerging economy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 233-244.
    3. Michalis Nikiforos & Simon Grothe, 2023. "Contractionary Effects of Foreign Price Shocks (and Potentially Expansionary Effects of Inflation)," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_1028, Levy Economics Institute.
    4. Wildauer, Rafael & Kohler, Karsten & Aboobaker, Adam & Guschanski, Alexander, 2023. "Energy price shocks, conflict inflation, and income distribution in a three-sector model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PB).
    5. Rolim, Lilian & Carvalho, Laura & Lang, Dany, 2024. "Monetary policy rules and the inequality-augmented Phillips curve," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • O23 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development

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