Fiscal sustainability in South Africa: Will history repeat itself?
Several empirical studies have found that fiscal policy has been sustainable in South Africa since 1960. This paper complements these studies by providing perspective on the manner in which fiscal sustainability was maintained. It discusses two episodes of significant increases and one period of substantial reduction in the public debt burden to show that periods of rising deficits and government debt in South Africa were followed by returns to sustainable levels, thereby preventing major domestic economic crises and external interventions. The paper also provides a projection of the fiscal outlook for South Africa based on a structural VAR model. The results suggest that the discretionary fiscal decisions of 2007 to 2010 might pose a serious threat to the sustainability of fiscal policy unless the authorities respond as they did in the past by checking large budget deficits and concomitant rapid increases in the public debt burden promptly.
|Date of creation:||2013|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Fax: +27 (0)21-808 2409
Web page: http://www.ekon.sun.ac.za
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Gauthier Tshiswaka-Kashalala, 2006. "Is Fiscal Policy Sustainable in South Africa? An Application of the Econometric Approach," Working Papers 200614, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Stan du Plessis & Willem Boshoff, 2007. "A fiscal rule to produce counter-cyclical fiscal policy in South Africa," Working Papers 13/2007, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sza:wpaper:wpapers183. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Melt van Schoor)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.