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Economic Determinants for China’s Industrial SO2 Emission: Reduced vs. Structural form and the role of international trade

  • Jie He

    ()

    (GREDI, Département d'économique, Université de Sherbrooke)

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This paper discusses the validity of the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis for the case of China’s industrial SO2 emission through both reduced and structural model. The estimated Chinaspecific EKC curve for per capital industrial SO2 emission predicts the turning point of 9000 yuan (2750 USD, PPP). However, given China’s fast population expansion speed, the decreasing trend in the per capita emission will not bring an immediate reduction in total industrial SO2 emission. Our structural EKC model succeeds in decomposing industrial SO2 emission density into the contribution from its three famous structural determinants and a marginal impact from international trade. The latter is actually composed of a significantly negative direct impact and indirect ones going through the composition effect, which further depends on the current capital/labour abundance ratio and the actual income level of a province.

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File URL: http://gredi.recherche.usherbrooke.ca/wpapers/GREDI-0627.pdf
File Function: First version, 2006
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Paper provided by Departement d'Economique de la Faculte d'administration à l'Universite de Sherbrooke in its series Cahiers de recherche with number 06-27.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:shr:wpaper:06-27
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  1. Brian R. Copeland & M. Scott Taylor, 1997. "A Simple Model of Trade, Capital Mobility, and the Environment," NBER Working Papers 5898, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Grossman, Gene & Krueger, Alan B, 1992. "Environmental Impacts of a North American Free Trade Agreement," CEPR Discussion Papers 644, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Selden Thomas M. & Song Daqing, 1995. "Neoclassical Growth, the J Curve for Abatement, and the Inverted U Curve for Pollution," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 162-168, September.
  4. Panayotou, Theodore, 1997. "Demystifying the environmental Kuznets curve: turning a black box into a policy tool," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(04), pages 465-484, November.
  5. Werner Antweiler & Brian R. Copeland & M. Scott Taylor, 2001. "Is Free Trade Good for the Environment?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 877-908, September.
  6. Cole, Matthew A. & Elliott, Robert J. R., 2003. "Determining the trade-environment composition effect: the role of capital, labor and environmental regulations," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 363-383, November.
  7. McGuire, Martin C., 1982. "Regulation, factor rewards, and international trade," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 335-354, April.
  8. Suri, Vivek & Chapman, Duane, 1998. "Economic growth, trade and energy: implications for the environmental Kuznets curve," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 195-208, May.
  9. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
  10. Hettige, Hemamala & Lucas, Robert E B & Wheeler, David, 1992. "The Toxic Intensity of Industrial Production: Global Patterns, Trends, and Trade Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(2), pages 478-81, May.
  11. Copeland, Brian R & Taylor, M Scott, 1994. "North-South Trade and the Environment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(3), pages 755-87, August.
  12. Selden Thomas M. & Song Daqing, 1994. "Environmental Quality and Development: Is There a Kuznets Curve for Air Pollution Emissions?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 147-162, September.
  13. Agras, Jean & Chapman, Duane, 1999. "A dynamic approach to the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 267-277, February.
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