Economic Determinants for China’s Industrial SO2 Emission: Reduced vs. Structural form and the role of international trade
This paper discusses the validity of the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis for the case of China’s industrial SO2 emission through both reduced and structural model. The estimated Chinaspecific EKC curve for per capital industrial SO2 emission predicts the turning point of 9000 yuan (2750 USD, PPP). However, given China’s fast population expansion speed, the decreasing trend in the per capita emission will not bring an immediate reduction in total industrial SO2 emission. Our structural EKC model succeeds in decomposing industrial SO2 emission density into the contribution from its three famous structural determinants and a marginal impact from international trade. The latter is actually composed of a significantly negative direct impact and indirect ones going through the composition effect, which further depends on the current capital/labour abundance ratio and the actual income level of a province.
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