Trade Turbulence: The Consequences of United States Tariff Increases for South African Exports

The imposition of widespread import tariffs by United States (US) President Donald Trump in 2025, invoking powers under Section 232 and the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), has introduced significant disruptions to global trade. South Africa (SA) is among the countries directly affected, with major export products such as vehicles, steel, and aluminium now subject to tariff hikes ranging from 25% to 50%. Additionally, a 10% reciprocal tariff on all imports into the US has been imposed, with a 30% rate scheduled to take effect from 1 August 2025 unless an alternative agreement is negotiated. These measures pose serious risks to South African exports, undermining the competitiveness of key sectors and eroding the benefits of preferential access under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). This paper utilises multiple data sources, including the United States International Trade Commission (USITC), UN Comtrade, South African Revenue Services (SARS) and the World Trade Organisation (WTO) - Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Balanced Trade in Services (BaTiS) database, to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the implications of the recent US tariff increases for South African exports. The analysis is carried out with an in-depth examination of bilateral trade between the US and South Africa, a detailed assessment of the tariff proclamations that have altered US duties on South African imports, and a simulation of the potential impact of these tariff changes on South Africa’s exports both to the US and to third country markets, specifically Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).