IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ris/adbrei/0107.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Hot Money Flows, Commodity Price Cycles, and Financial Repression in the US and the People’s Republic of China: The Consequences of Near Zero US Interest Rates

Author

Listed:
  • McKinnon, Ronald

    (Stanford University)

  • Liu, Zhao

    (Stanford University)

Abstract

Under near zero United States (US) interest rates, the international dollar standard malfunctions. Emerging markets with naturally higher interest rates are swamped with "hot money" inflows. Emerging market central banks intervene to prevent their currencies from rising precipitously. They subsequently lose monetary control and begin inflating. Primary commodity prices rise worldwide unless interrupted by an international banking crisis. This cyclical inflation on the dollar’s periphery only registers in the US core consumer price index (CPI) with a long lag. The zero interest rate policy also fails to stimulate the US economy as domestic financial intermediation by banks and money market mutual funds is repressed. Because the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is forced to keep its interest rates below market-clearing levels, it also suffers from "financial repression," although in a form differing from that in the US.

Suggested Citation

  • McKinnon, Ronald & Liu, Zhao, 2013. "Hot Money Flows, Commodity Price Cycles, and Financial Repression in the US and the People’s Republic of China: The Consequences of Near Zero US Interest Rates," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 107, Asian Development Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:adbrei:0107
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://aric.adb.org/pdf/workingpaper/WP107_McKinnon_Liu_Consequences_of_Near_Zero_US_Interest_Rates.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Menkhoff, Lukas & Sarno, Lucio & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2012. "Currency momentum strategies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(3), pages 660-684.
    2. Ken Anadu & Steffanie Brady & Nathaniel R. Cooper, 2012. "The stability of prime money market mutual funds: sponsor support from 2007 to 2011," Supervisory Research and Analysis Working Papers RPA 12-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    3. Nicolas E. Magud & Carmen M. Reinhart & Esteban R. Vesperoni, 2014. "Capital Inflows, Exchange Rate Flexibility and Credit Booms," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(3), pages 415-430, August.
    4. Kazuo Ueda, 2012. "Deleveraging and Monetary Policy: Japan since the 1990s and the United States since 2007," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 177-202, Summer.
    5. Li, Jianjun & Hsu, Sara (ed.), 2009. "Informal Finance in China: American and Chinese Perspectives," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195380644, Decembrie.
    6. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2009. "The Case for Stabilizing China's Exchange Rate: Setting the Stage for Fiscal Expansion," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 17(1), pages 1-32, January.
    7. Giovanni Ferri & Li-Gang Liu, 2010. "Honor Thy Creditors Beforan Thy Shareholders: Are the Profits of Chinese State-Owned Enterprises Real?," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 9(3), pages 50-71, Fall.
    8. Nicholas R. Lardy, 2008. "Financial Repression in China," Policy Briefs PB08-8, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    9. Axel Löffler & Gunther Schnabl & Franziska Schobert, 2012. "Limits of Monetary Policy Autonomy by East Asian Debtor Central Banks," CESifo Working Paper Series 3742, CESifo.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tong, Eric, 2017. "US monetary policy and global financial stability," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 466-485.
    2. Lin Kun-Chin, 2014. "Protecting the petroleum industry: renewed government aid to fossil fuel producers," Business and Politics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(4), pages 1-30, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ronald McKinnon, 2013. "Hot Money Flows, Commodity Price Cycles and Financial Repression in the USA and China: The Consequences of Near-zero US Interest Rates," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 21(4), pages 1-13, July.
    2. Ronald McKinnon & Zhao Liu, 2013. "Zero Interest Rates in the United States Provoke World Monetary Instability and Constrict the US Economy," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 49-56, February.
    3. Chen, Shenglan & Ma, Hui & Teng, Haimeng & Wu, Qiang, 2022. "Banking liberalization and corporate tax planning: Evidence from natural experiments," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    4. Reinhart, Carmen, 2012. "Capital Inflows, Credit Booms and Their Risks," MPRA Paper 50981, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Coletta Frenzel Baudisch, 2019. "Chinese Capital Flows to African Economies and Real Bilateral Exchange Rates," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201910, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    6. Gunther Schnabl, 2017. "Exchange Rate Regime, Financial Market Bubbles and Long-term Growth in China: Lessons from Japan," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 25(1), pages 32-57, January.
    7. Xiaole Qiao & Lin Song & Xiaomin Fan, 2022. "How do zombie firms affect innovation: from the perspective of credit resources distortion," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 36(1), pages 67-87, May.
    8. McKinnon, Ronald, 2012. "Carry trades, interest differentials, and international monetary reform," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 549-567.
    9. Gunther Schnabl, 2019. "China's Overinvestment and International Trade Conflicts," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 27(5), pages 37-62, September.
    10. König, Philipp J. & Pothier, David, 2018. "Safe but fragile: Information acquisition, sponsor support and shadow bank runs," Discussion Papers 15/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    11. Mr. Marco Arena & Serpil Bouza & Ms. Era Dabla-Norris & Mrs. Kerstin Gerling & Lamin Njie, 2015. "Credit Booms and Macroeconomic Dynamics: Stylized Facts and Lessons for Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 2015/011, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2013. "Financial Crises: Explanations, Types and Implications," CAMA Working Papers 2013-06, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    13. Michael D. Bordo & Owen F. Humpage & Anna J. Schwartz, 2015. "Epilogue: Foreign-Exchange-Market Operations in the Twenty-First Century," NBER Chapters, in: Strained Relations: US Foreign-Exchange Operations and Monetary Policy in the Twentieth Century, pages 345-363, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Kwon, Oh Kang & Satchell, Stephen, 2018. "The distribution of cross sectional momentum returns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 225-241.
    15. Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał & Kolasa, Marcin & Makarski, Krzysztof, 2017. "Monetary and macroprudential policy with foreign currency loans," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PB), pages 352-372.
    16. Gunther Schnabl, 2012. "Monetary Policy Reform in a World of Central Banks," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 26-2012, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    17. Marco Cipriani & Gabriele La Spada, 2020. "Sophisticated and Unsophisticated Runs," Staff Reports 956, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    18. Schnabl, Gunther, 2013. "The global move into the zero interest rate and high debt trap," Working Papers 121, University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science.
    19. Shalendra D. Sharma, 2009. "Dealing with the Contagion: China and India in the Aftermath of the Subprime Meltdown," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 17(2), pages 1-14, March.
    20. Gregorio Impavido & Mr. Heinz Rudolph & Mr. Luigi Ruggerone, 2013. "Bank Funding in Central, Eastern and South Eastern Europe Post Lehman: A “New Normal”?," IMF Working Papers 2013/148, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dollar standard; carry trades; commodity price inflation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:adbrei:0107. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ivan B. de Leon (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/oradbph.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.