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An Analysis of Consumer Debt Restructuring Policies

Author

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  • Joao Cocco

    (London Business School)

  • Nuno Clara

    (London Business School)

Abstract

We solve a quantitative dynamic model of borrower behavior, whose income is subject to individual specific and aggregate shocks. Lenders provide loans competitively. Recessions are characterized by lower expected earnings growth and a higher likelihood of a large drop in earnings. The model generates procyclical credit demand and countercyclical default. We analyze alternative debt restructuring policies aimed at reducing default during recessions: (i) interest rate reduction; (ii) maturity extension; and (iii) refinancing. Outcomes are best for the maturity extension policy that allows borrowers to temporarily make interest-only payments on the loan. Not all borrowers exercise the option. The maturity extension policy leads to lower default rates, higher consumer welfare, and a smaller drop in consumption during recessions, without significantly increasing cash-flow risk for lenders.

Suggested Citation

  • Joao Cocco & Nuno Clara, 2016. "An Analysis of Consumer Debt Restructuring Policies," 2016 Meeting Papers 480, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed016:480
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    File URL: https://economicdynamics.org/meetpapers/2016/paper_480.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Constantinides, George M & Duffie, Darrell, 1996. "Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Consumers," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(2), pages 219-240, April.
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    3. Narayana Kocherlakota & Luigi Pistaferri, 2009. "Asset Pricing Implications of Pareto Optimality with Private Information," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 117(3), pages 555-590, June.
    4. Natalia Kovrijnykh & Igor Livshits, 2017. "Screening As A Unified Theory Of Delinquency, Renegotiation, And Bankruptcy," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 58, pages 499-527, May.
    5. Luigi Guiso & Paola Sapienza & Luigi Zingales, 2013. "The Determinants of Attitudes toward Strategic Default on Mortgages," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(4), pages 1473-1515, August.
    6. Kartik B. Athreya, 2005. "Equilibrium models of personal bankruptcy : a survey," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 91(Spr), pages 73-98.
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    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. An Analysis of Consumer Debt Restructuring Policies
      by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2016-08-26 20:52:24

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    Cited by:

    1. Kim, Jiseob & Lim, Taejun, 2021. "Cost-effective mortgage modification program to reduce mortgage defaults," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 220-241.
    2. Kim, Jiseob, 2019. "How foreclosure delays impact mortgage defaults and mortgage modifications," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 18-37.

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