IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/red/sed016/338.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Learning in Crowded Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Adam Zawadowski

    (Central European University)

  • Peter Kondor

    (London School of Economics)

Abstract

We develop a model of capital reallocation to analyze whether the presence of more arbitrageurs improves capital allocation and welfare. While trades can become crowded due to imperfect information and externalities, arbitrageurs can devote resources to flexibly learn about the number of earlier entrants. Above a threshold, increasing the number of arbitrageurs does not affect capital allocation: whether there is eventually too little or too much capital allocated to the trade is solely determined by the parameters of the market. The flexibility in the learning technology is key to this insight. However, the presence of more arbitrageurs decreases welfare, as they use more aggregate resources to learn about each others' position. When both sophisticated and unsophisticated arbitrageurs are present, increasing the share of sophisticated arbitrageurs might be welfare reducing.

Suggested Citation

  • Adam Zawadowski & Peter Kondor, 2016. "Learning in Crowded Markets," 2016 Meeting Papers 338, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed016:338
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://red-files-public.s3.amazonaws.com/meetpapers/2016/paper_338.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dilip Abreu & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2003. "Bubbles and Crashes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 173-204, January.
    2. Biais, Bruno & Foucault, Thierry & Moinas, Sophie, 2015. "Equilibrium fast trading," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(2), pages 292-313.
    3. Khandani, Amir E. & Lo, Andrew W., 2011. "What happened to the quants in August 2007? Evidence from factors and transactions data," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 1-46, February.
    4. Zheng Sun & Ashley Wang & Lu Zheng, 2012. "The Road Less Traveled: Strategy Distinctiveness and Hedge Fund Performance," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(1), pages 96-143.
    5. Bartosz Mackowiak & Mirko Wiederholt, 2009. "Optimal Sticky Prices under Rational Inattention," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 769-803, June.
    6. Filip Matêjka & Alisdair McKay, 2015. "Rational Inattention to Discrete Choices: A New Foundation for the Multinomial Logit Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(1), pages 272-298, January.
    7. Kondor, Péter & Zawadowski, Adam, 2019. "Learning in crowded markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    8. Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1980. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 393-408, June.
    9. Christian Hellwig & Laura Veldkamp, 2009. "Knowing What Others Know: Coordination Motives in Information Acquisition," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 76(1), pages 223-251.
    10. Gromb, Denis & Vayanos, Dimitri, 2002. "Equilibrium and welfare in markets with financially constrained arbitrageurs," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2-3), pages 361-407.
    11. Vincent Glode & Richard C. Green & Richard Lowery, 2012. "Financial Expertise as an Arms Race," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(5), pages 1723-1759, October.
    12. Darrell Duffie & Bruno Strulovici, 2012. "Capital Mobility and Asset Pricing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(6), pages 2469-2509, November.
    13. Lasse Heje Pedersen & Mark Mitchell & Todd Pulvino, 2007. "Slow Moving Capital," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 215-220, May.
    14. Eric Budish & Peter Cramton & John Shim, 2015. "Editor's Choice The High-Frequency Trading Arms Race: Frequent Batch Auctions as a Market Design Response," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 130(4), pages 1547-1621.
    15. Hirshleifer, Jack, 1971. "The Private and Social Value of Information and the Reward to Inventive Activity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 61(4), pages 561-574, September.
    16. Glenn C. Loury, 1979. "Market Structure and Innovation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 93(3), pages 395-410.
    17. Sophie Moinas & Sebastien Pouget, 2013. "The Bubble Game: An Experimental Study of Speculation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(4), pages 1507-1539, July.
    18. Luca Colombo & Gianluca Femminis & Alessandro Pavan, 2014. "Information Acquisition and Welfare," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 81(4), pages 1438-1483.
    19. Jeremy C. Stein, 2009. "Presidential Address: Sophisticated Investors and Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(4), pages 1517-1548, August.
    20. Krueger, Anne O, 1974. "The Political Economy of the Rent-Seeking Society," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(3), pages 291-303, June.
    21. David P. Myatt & Chris Wallace, 2012. "Endogenous Information Acquisition in Coordination Games," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 79(1), pages 340-374.
    22. Robin Greenwood & Samuel G Hanson & Gordon Y Liao, 2018. "Asset Price Dynamics in Partially Segmented Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(9), pages 3307-3343.
    23. Sims, Christopher A., 2003. "Implications of rational inattention," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 665-690, April.
    24. Marcin Kacperczyk & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Laura Veldkamp, 2016. "A Rational Theory of Mutual Funds' Attention Allocation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84, pages 571-626, March.
    25. Darrell Duffie, 2010. "Presidential Address: Asset Price Dynamics with Slow‐Moving Capital," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(4), pages 1237-1267, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kondor, Péter & Zawadowski, Adam, 2019. "Learning in crowded markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    2. Bartosz Maćkowiak & Filip Matějka & Mirko Wiederholt, 2023. "Rational Inattention: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 61(1), pages 226-273, March.
    3. Yang Hao, 2023. "Financial Market with Learning from Price under Knightian Uncertainty," Working Papers hal-03686748, HAL.
    4. Stepan Gorban & Anna A. Obizhaeva & Yajun Wang, 2020. "Trading in Crowded Markets," Working Papers w0275, New Economic School (NES).
    5. Fardeau, Vincent, 2023. "Sequential entry in illiquid markets," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Angeletos, G.-M. & Lian, C., 2016. "Incomplete Information in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1065-1240, Elsevier.
    2. George-Marios Angeletos & Chen Lian, 2016. "Incomplete Information in Macroeconomics: Accommodating Frictions in Coordination," NBER Working Papers 22297, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Bartosz Maćkowiak & Filip Matějka & Mirko Wiederholt, 2023. "Rational Inattention: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 61(1), pages 226-273, March.
    4. Stephanie L. Chan, 2021. "The Social Value of Public Information When Not Everyone is Privately Informed," Working Papers 2021-09-18, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
    5. Pavan, Alessandro & Vives, Xavier, 2015. "Information, Coordination, and Market Frictions: An Introduction," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 158(PB), pages 407-426.
    6. Rigos, Alexandros, 2022. "The normality assumption in coordination games with flexible information acquisition," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    7. Vayanos, Dimitri & Wang, Jiang, 2013. "Market Liquidity—Theory and Empirical Evidence ," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1289-1361, Elsevier.
    8. Blankespoor, Elizabeth & deHaan, Ed & Marinovic, Iván, 2020. "Disclosure processing costs, investors’ information choice, and equity market outcomes: A review," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2).
    9. Alessandro Pavan, 2014. "Attention, Coordination, and Bounded Recall," Discussion Papers 1576, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
    10. Florian Gauer & Christoph Kuzmics, 2020. "Cognitive Empathy In Conflict Situations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1659-1678, November.
    11. Han, Jungsuk & Sangiorgi, Francesco, 2018. "Searching for information," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 342-373.
    12. Mäkinen, Taneli & Ohl, Björn, 2015. "Information acquisition and learning from prices over the business cycle," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 158(PB), pages 585-633.
    13. Chen, Heng & Luo, Yulei & Pei, Guangyu, 2015. "Attention misallocation, social welfare and policy implications," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 37-57.
    14. Xavier Gabaix, 2017. "Behavioral Inattention," NBER Working Papers 24096, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Chen, Heng & Luo, Yulei & Pei, Guangyu, 2014. "Too Much of a Good Thing: Attention Misallocation and Social Welfare in Coordination Games," MPRA Paper 59139, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Fardeau, Vincent, 2023. "Sequential entry in illiquid markets," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    17. Takashi Ui, 2022. "Optimal and Robust Disclosure of Public Information," Papers 2203.16809, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2022.
    18. Caglayan, Mustafa & Pham, Tho & Talavera, Oleksandr & Xiong, Xiong, 2020. "Asset mispricing in peer-to-peer loan secondary markets," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    19. Wei Xiong, 2013. "Bubbles, Crises, and Heterogeneous Beliefs," NBER Working Papers 18905, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Yang, Ming, 2015. "Coordination with flexible information acquisition," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 158(PB), pages 721-738.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:red:sed016:338. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christian Zimmermann (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sedddea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.