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The Bubble Game: An Experimental Study of Speculation

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  • Sophie Moinas
  • Sebastien Pouget

Abstract

We propose a bubble game that involves sequential trading of an asset commonly known to be valueless. Because no trader is ever sure to be last in the market sequence, the game allows for a bubble at the Nash equilibrium when there is no cap on the maximum price. We run experiments both with and without a price cap. Structural estimation of behavioral game theory models suggests that quantal responses and analogy-based expectations are important drivers of speculation.
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Suggested Citation

  • Sophie Moinas & Sebastien Pouget, 2013. "The Bubble Game: An Experimental Study of Speculation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(4), pages 1507-1539, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecm:emetrp:v:81:y:2013:i:4:p:1507-1539
    DOI: ECTA9433
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.3982/ECTA9433
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Shinichi Hirota & Juergen Huber & Thomas Stock & Shyam Sunder, 2018. "Speculation and Price Indeterminacy in Financial Markets: An Experimental Study," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2134, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    2. Sophie Moinas & Sébastien Pouget, 2016. "The bubble game: A classroom experiment," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 1402-1412, April.
    3. Yasushi Asako & Yukihiko Funaki & Kozo Ueda & Nobuyuki Uto, 2016. "Symmetric Information Bubbles: Experimental Evidence," Working Papers 1613, Waseda University, Faculty of Political Science and Economics.
    4. repec:eee:jeborg:v:137:y:2017:i:c:p:232-258 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Kukushkin, Nikolai S., 2015. "Robert Louis Stevenson's Bottle Imp: A strategic analysis," MPRA Paper 64639, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Camerer, Colin F. & Ho, Teck-Hua, 2015. "Behavioral Game Theory Experiments and Modeling," Handbook of Game Theory with Economic Applications, Elsevier.
    7. Brunnermeier, Markus K. & Oehmke, Martin, 2013. "Bubbles, Financial Crises, and Systemic Risk," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, Elsevier.
    8. Baghestanian, S. & Lugovskyy, V. & Puzzello, D., 2015. "Traders’ heterogeneity and bubble-crash patterns in experimental asset markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 82-101.
    9. Ernesto Dal Bó & Pedro Dal Bó & Erik Eyster, 2016. "The Demand for Bad Policy when Voters Underappreciate Equilibrium Effects," NBER Working Papers 22916, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Baghestanian, Sascha & Walker, Todd B., 2014. "Thar she blows again: Reducing anchoring rekindles bubbles," SAFE Working Paper Series 54, Research Center SAFE - Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe, Goethe University Frankfurt.
    11. Adam Zawadowski & Peter Kondor, 2016. "Learning in Crowded Markets," 2016 Meeting Papers 338, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Moinas, Sophie & Pouget, Sébastien, 2009. "The Bubble Game : An experimental Study of Speculation (An earlier version of this paper was circulated under the title "The Rational and Irrational Bubbles : an Experiment")," IDEI Working Papers 560, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse, revised Jan 2012.
    13. Knight, John & Satchell, Stephen & Srivastava, Nandini, 2014. "Steady state distributions for models of locally explosive regimes: Existence and econometric implications," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 281-288.
    14. Peter Kondor & Adam Zawadowski, 2018. "Learning in Crowded Markets," CEU Working Papers 2018_4, Department of Economics, Central European University.
    15. Matthew Embrey & Guillaume R. Frechette & Sevgi Yuksel, 2016. "Cooperation in the Finitely Repeated Prisoner's Dilemma," Working Paper Series 08616, Department of Economics, University of Sussex.
    16. Janssen, Dirk-Jan & Weitzel, Utz & Füllbrunn, Sascha, 2015. "Speculative Bubbles - An introduction and application of the Speculation Elicitation Task (SET)," MPRA Paper 63028, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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