Equilibrium Default and Slow Recoveries
The 2007-2009 financial crisis generated a striking short-lived increase in the employment separation rate and a persistent decrease in its finding probability, which resulted in an increase in unemployment and a slow recovery. In this paper we propose a novel mechanism that can account for these patterns. The key innovation relies on the interaction between firms' number of workers and its willingness to default: firms with more debt per worker are less likely to repay and consequently face higher credit spreads. Therefore, at the aggregate level, credit conditions worsen with higher unemployment, which further reduces firms' incentives to hire resulting in a loop between the financial and the labor market.
|Date of creation:||2013|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Society for Economic Dynamics Marina Azzimonti Department of Economics Stonybrook University 10 Nicolls Road Stonybrook NY 11790 USA|
Web page: http://www.EconomicDynamics.org/
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- Saki Bigio, 2012.
"Financial Risk Capacity,"
2012 Meeting Papers
97, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Jonathan Eaton & Mark Gersovitz, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309.
- Adrian, Tobias & Boyarchenko, Nina, 2012. "Intermediary leverage cycles and financial stability," Staff Reports 567, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, revised 01 Feb 2015.
- Tobias Adrian & Nina Boyarchenko, 2012. "Intermediary Leverage Cycles and Financial Stability," Working Papers 2012-010, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
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