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Equilibrium Default and Slow Recoveries

Author

Listed:
  • Joseph Mullins

    (NYU)

  • Gaston Navarro

    (New York University)

  • Julio Blanco

    (New York University)

Abstract

The 2007-2009 financial crisis generated a striking short-lived increase in the employment separation rate and a persistent decrease in its finding probability, which resulted in an increase in unemployment and a slow recovery. In this paper we propose a novel mechanism that can account for these patterns. The key innovation relies on the interaction between firms' number of workers and its willingness to default: firms with more debt per worker are less likely to repay and consequently face higher credit spreads. Therefore, at the aggregate level, credit conditions worsen with higher unemployment, which further reduces firms' incentives to hire resulting in a loop between the financial and the labor market.

Suggested Citation

  • Joseph Mullins & Gaston Navarro & Julio Blanco, 2013. "Equilibrium Default and Slow Recoveries," 2013 Meeting Papers 694, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed013:694
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Justiniano, Alejandro & Primiceri, Giorgio E. & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2010. "Investment shocks and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 132-145, March.
    2. Saki Bigio, 2012. "Financial Risk Capacity," 2012 Meeting Papers 97, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Jonathan Eaton & Mark Gersovitz, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309.
    4. Adrian, Tobias & Boyarchenko, Nina, 2012. "Intermediary leverage cycles and financial stability," Staff Reports 567, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, revised 01 Feb 2015.
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