IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/red/sed011/1333.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Default Risk and Aggregate Fluctuations in an Economy with Production Heterogeneity

Author

Listed:
  • Julia K. Thomas

    (Ohio State University)

  • Aubhik Khan

    (Ohio State University)

Abstract

We study business cycle driven by exogenous changes in total factor productivity and credit shocks. The latter involve changes to the fraction of assets that lenders may seize in the event of default. Following changes in aggregate total factor productivity, we find that our non-contingent loan contracts drive countercyclical default risk. When firms face fixed costs of operation, this leads to a worsening of the allocation of capital in recessions that amplifies the effects of technology shocks. Following credit shocks, we see a reduction in economic activity that is qualitatively different from that following a technology shock. The response in investment is more serve, while the responses in consumption, employment and output are more gradual. In contrast to existing analysis of credit shocks with exogenous collateral constraints, our environment does not predict a slow recovery when borrowing conditions return to normal.

Suggested Citation

  • Julia K. Thomas & Aubhik Khan, 2011. "Default Risk and Aggregate Fluctuations in an Economy with Production Heterogeneity," 2011 Meeting Papers 1333, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed011:1333
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://economicdynamics.org/meetpapers/2011/paper_1333.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paul Gomme & B. Ravikumar & Peter Rupert, 2011. "The Return to Capital and the Business Cycle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(2), pages 262-278, April.
    2. Francisco J. Buera & Yongseok Shin, 2013. "Financial Frictions and the Persistence of History: A Quantitative Exploration," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 121(2), pages 221-272.
    3. Hansen, Gary D., 1985. "Indivisible labor and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 309-327, November.
    4. Diego A. Comin & Thomas Philippon, 2006. "The Rise in Firm-Level Volatility: Causes and Consequences," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2005, Volume 20, pages 167-228 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Aubhik Khan & Julia K. Thomas, 2013. "Credit Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations in an Economy with Production Heterogeneity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 121(6), pages 1055-1107.
    6. Thomas W. Bates & Kathleen M. Kahle & René M. Stulz, 2009. "Why Do U.S. Firms Hold So Much More Cash than They Used To?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(5), pages 1985-2021, October.
    7. Zetlin-Jones, Ariel & Shourideh, Ali, 2017. "External financing and the role of financial frictions over the business cycle: Measurement and theory," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 1-15.
    8. Rogerson, Richard, 1988. "Indivisible labor, lotteries and equilibrium," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 3-16, January.
    9. Cristina Arellano, 2008. "Default Risk and Income Fluctuations in Emerging Economies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 690-712, June.
    10. Aubhik Khan & Julia K. Thomas, 2008. "Idiosyncratic Shocks and the Role of Nonconvexities in Plant and Aggregate Investment Dynamics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 76(2), pages 395-436, March.
    11. Aguiar, Mark & Gopinath, Gita, 2006. "Defaultable debt, interest rates and the current account," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 64-83, June.
    12. Diego Restuccia & Richard Rogerson, 2008. "Policy Distortions and Aggregate Productivity with Heterogeneous Plants," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(4), pages 707-720, October.
    13. Satyajit Chatterjee & Dean Corbae & Makoto Nakajima & José-Víctor Ríos-Rull, 2007. "A Quantitative Theory of Unsecured Consumer Credit with Risk of Default," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(6), pages 1525-1589, November.
    14. Jonathan Eaton & Mark Gersovitz, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309.
    15. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
    16. Vaidyanathan Venkateswaran & Hugo A. Hopenhayn & Joel David, 2013. "The Informativeness of Stock Prices, Misallocation and Aggregate Productivity," 2013 Meeting Papers 455, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    17. Steven J. Davis & John Haltiwanger, 1992. "Gross Job Creation, Gross Job Destruction, and Employment Reallocation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(3), pages 819-863.
    18. Per Krusell & Anthony A. Smith & Jr., 1998. "Income and Wealth Heterogeneity in the Macroeconomy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(5), pages 867-896, October.
    19. Lawrence J. Christiano & Roberto Motto & Massimo Rostagno, 2014. "Risk Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(1), pages 27-65, January.
    20. Narayana R. Kocherlakota, 2000. "Creating business cycles through credit constraints," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Sum, pages 2-10.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Charles Ka Yui Leung & Joe Cho Yiu Ng, 2018. "Macro Aspects of Housing," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2018_016, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    2. In Hwan Jo & Tatsuro Senga, 2016. "Firm Dynamics, Misallocation and Targeted Policies," Working Papers 809, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    3. Julian Kozlowski & Laura Veldkamp & Venky Venkateswaran, 2015. "The Tail that Wags the Economy: Belief-Driven Business Cycles and Persistent Stagnation," Working Papers 15-10, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    4. Julian Kozlowski & Laura Veldkamp & Venky Venkateswaran, 2015. "The Tail that Wags the Economy: Beliefs and Persistent Stagnation," NBER Working Papers 21719, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Gete, Pedro, 2018. "Lending standards and macroeconomic dynamics," Working Paper Series 2207, European Central Bank.
    6. In Hwan Jo & Tatsuro Senga, 2019. "Aggregate Consequences of Credit Subsidy Policies: Firm Dynamics and Misallocation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 32, pages 68-93, April.
    7. Julia Thomas & Berardino Palazzo & Aubhik Khan & Gian Luca Clementi, 2014. "Entry, Exit and the Shape of Aggregate Fluctuations in a General Equilibrium Model with Capital Heterogeneity," 2014 Meeting Papers 1344, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Joao Ayres & Gajendran Raveendranathan, 2018. "The Firm Dynamics of Business Cycles," Department of Economics Working Papers 2018-16, McMaster University.
    9. repec:eee:dyncon:v:102:y:2019:i:c:p:1-28 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Julian Kozlowski & Laura Veldkamp & Venky Venkateswaran, 2019. "The Tail That Keeps the Riskless Rate Low," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 33(1), pages 253-283.
    11. Dean Corbae & Pablo D'Erasmo, 2017. "Reorganization or Liquidation: Bankruptcy Choice and Firm Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 23515, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. In Hwan Jo & Tatsuro Senga, 2019. "Aggregate Consequences of Credit Subsidy Policies: Firm Dynamics and Misallocation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 32, pages 68-93, April.
    13. Simon Mongey & Gianluca Violante & Alessandro Gavazza, 2015. "What Shifts the Beveridge Curve? Recruiting Intensity and Financial Shocks," 2015 Meeting Papers 1079, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    14. Wei Cui & Leo Kaas, 2017. "Default Cycles," Discussion Papers 1716, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    15. Xiaodan Gao & Shaofeng Xu, 2018. "The Role of Corporate Saving over the Business Cycle: Shock Absorber or Amplifier?," Staff Working Papers 18-59, Bank of Canada.
    16. Julia Thomas & Aubhik Khan, 2012. "Uncertainty Shocks in an Economy with Collateral Constraints," 2012 Meeting Papers 1075, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:red:sed011:1333. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christian Zimmermann). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/sedddea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.