IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pre/wpaper/202604.html

When the Weather Turns Risky: Climate Shocks and U.S. State-Level Credit Risk

Author

Listed:
  • Abeeb Olaniran

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa)

  • Xin Sheng

    (Lord Ashcroft International Business School, Anglia Ruskin University, Chelmsford, United Kingdom.)

  • Oguzhan Cepni

    (Ostim Technical University, Ankara, Turkiye; University of Edinburgh Business School, Centre for Business, Climate Change, and Sustainability; Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School, Denmark)

  • Rangan Gupta

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa)

Abstract

Climate-related risks have become an increasingly important source of market disruption, with potential implications for credit markets. As such, this study examines whether and how climate risks influence credit risk, as measured by credit default swap (CDS) spreads. Using a U.S. state-level climate risk measure and a local projections framework, we analyze both linear and asymmetric effects of climate shocks on CDS spreads. The linear results provide strong evidence that climate shocks exert a positive and statistically significant impact on credit risk, with findings robust across multiple CDS tenors. Within a nonlinear framework, where climate risk serves as a regime-switching variable, we uncover asymmetric responses of CDS spreads across different maturities and term structures. Overall, the findings offer valuable insights for market participants, including investors and financial institutions.

Suggested Citation

  • Abeeb Olaniran & Xin Sheng & Oguzhan Cepni & Rangan Gupta, 2026. "When the Weather Turns Risky: Climate Shocks and U.S. State-Level Credit Risk," Working Papers 202604, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:202604
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://drupalwebprod-files.up.ac.za/Public/2026-02/202604.pdf?VersionId=lWaM1y9wJyA6BigFwEQXhgvFQBSwg8O_
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Calabrese, Raffaella & Dombrowski, Timothy & Mandel, Antoine & Pace, R. Kelley & Zanin, Luca, 2024. "Impacts of extreme weather events on mortgage risks and their evolution under climate change: A case study on Florida," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 314(1), pages 377-392.
    2. Balana, Bedru B. & Mekonnen, Dawit & Haile, Beliyou & Hagos, Fitsum & Yimam, Seid & Ringler, Claudia, 2022. "Demand and supply constraints of credit in smallholder farming: Evidence from Ethiopia and Tanzania," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    3. Boucher, Stephen R. & Carter, Michael R. & Guirkinger, Catherine, 2008. "AJAE Appendix: Risk Rationing and Wealth Effects in Credit Markets: Theory and Implications for Agriculture Development," American Journal of Agricultural Economics APPENDICES, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(2), pages 1-6.
    4. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    5. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2013. "Output Spillovers from Fiscal Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 141-146, May.
    6. Christiane Baumeister & Danilo Leiva-León & Eric Sims, 2024. "Tracking Weekly State-Level Economic Conditions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 106(2), pages 483-504, March.
    7. Stephen R. Boucher & Michael R. Carter & Catherine Guirkinger, 2008. "Risk Rationing and Wealth Effects in Credit Markets: Theory and Implications for Agricultural Development," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(2), pages 409-423.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jiang, Meishan & Li, Jingrong & Mi, Yunsheng, 2024. "Farmers’ cooperatives and smallholder farmers’ access to credit: Evidence from China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    2. Liu, Bei & Ren, Baoping & Jin, Fei, 2025. "Does climate risk affect the ease of access to credit for farmers? Evidence from CHFS," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    3. Abeeb Olaniran & Xin Sheng & Oguzhan Cepni & Rangan Gupta, 2025. "Climate Shocks and Unemployment Claims," Working Papers 202536, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    4. Nan Zhao & Dehong Lv, 2023. "Can Joining the Agricultural Industry Chain Alleviate the Problem of Credit Rationing for Farmers?," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-28, July.
    5. Quentin Stoeffler & Michael Carter & Catherine Guirkinger & Wouter Gelade, 2022. "The Spillover Impact of Index Insurance on Agricultural Investment by Cotton Farmers in Burkina Faso," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 36(1), pages 114-140.
    6. Shukri Ahmed & Craig McIntosh & Alexandros Sarris, 2020. "The Impact of Commercial Rainfall Index Insurance: Experimental Evidence from Ethiopia," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(4), pages 1154-1176, August.
    7. Alain de Janvry & Élisabeth Sadoulet, 2023. "Seven propositions to support and finance the agricultural sector in sub-Saharan Africa in the context of climate change WP324," Working Papers hal-04123941, HAL.
    8. Anette Ruml & Martin C. Parlasca, 2022. "In‐kind credit provision through contract farming and formal credit markets," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(2), pages 402-425, April.
    9. Olomola, Aderibigbe, 2014. "Business operations of agrodealers and their participation in the loan market in Nigeria," IFPRI discussion papers 1400, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    10. Stoeffler, Quentin & Wouter, Gelade & Catherine, Guirkinger & Michael, Carter, 2016. "Indirect protection: the impact of cotton insurance on farmers’ income portfolio in Burkina Faso," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235980, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    11. Ruhollah Eskandari & Morteza Zamanian, 2023. "Heterogeneous responses to corporate marginal tax rates: Evidence from small and large firms," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(7), pages 1018-1047, November.
    12. Zhe Liu & Zhenhong Qi & Qingsong Tian & John Stephen Clark & Zeyu Zhang, 2024. "The Impact of Digital Finance on Farmers’ Adoption of Eco-Agricultural Technology: Evidence from Rice-Crayfish Co-Cultivation Technology in China," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-20, April.
    13. de Janvry, Alain & Sadoulet, Elisabeth, 2020. "Using agriculture for development: Supply- and demand-side approaches," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    14. Naranjo, María A. & Pieters, Janneke & Alpízar, Francisco, 2019. "Credit, insurance and farmers’ liability: Evidence from a lab in the field experiment with coffee farmers in Costa Rica," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 12-27.
    15. Lien, Gudbrand & Kumbhakar, Subal C. & Mishra, Ashok K. & Hardaker, J. Brian, 2022. "Does risk management affect productivity of organic rice farmers in India? Evidence from a semiparametric production model," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 303(3), pages 1392-1402.
    16. Petraud, Jean & Boucher, Stephen & Carter, Michael, 2015. "Competing theories of risk preferences and the demand for crop insurance: Experimental evidence from Peru," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211383, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    17. Abdoul Karim Diamoutene & John Baptist D. Jatoe, 2025. "Participation in social safety net programs and household agricultural performance in Mali," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 27(3), pages 984-1001, December.
    18. Sarfo, Yaw & Musshoff, Oliver & Weber, Ron & Danne, Michael, 2021. "Farmers’ Willingness to Pay for Digital Credit: Evidence from a Discrete Choice Experiment in Madagascar," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315029, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    19. Andrew B. Martinez, 2025. "How do Macroeconomic Expectations React to Extreme Weather Shocks?," Working Papers 2025-001, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research.
    20. Awotide, B.A. & Abdoulaye, Tahirou & Alene, Arega & Manyong, Victor M., 2015. "Impact of Access to Credit on Agricultural Productivity: Evidence from Smallholder Cassava Farmers in Nigeria," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 210969, International Association of Agricultural Economists.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:202604. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Rangan Gupta (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/decupza.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.