IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/62521.html

Does a Speculative Trade in Food Commodities Influence Food Price Inflation in India?

Author

Listed:
  • Soundararajan, Pushparaj
  • Suresh, Vidya

Abstract

Inflation, especially the food inflation has become a major economic challenge for the public policy in the contemporary India. Inflation pressure on food products is caused by interplay of multiple factors. The literature has identified various sources of food price inflation that included institutional factors, market conditions and institutional arrangements. The effect of institutional arrangements like speculative trade in commodity on the inflation is studied in many studies. Yet similar studies have not been attempted in the Indian context though the speculative trade is permitted in commodities from 2003 onwards. This paper analyses the relationship between wholesale food price index and trading on agricultural commodities in Multi-Commodity Exchange of India (MCX) using the monthly data between 2004 and 2014 from CSO and MCX respectively. The researchers have used time series analysis to draw conclusions from the study which indicates that there is no influence of trading on food commodity futures on wholesale price indices. However, the trading in MCX is influenced by fluctuations in wholesale price indices which may have implications for the future of food commodities prices in India.

Suggested Citation

  • Soundararajan, Pushparaj & Suresh, Vidya, 2014. "Does a Speculative Trade in Food Commodities Influence Food Price Inflation in India?," MPRA Paper 62521, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:62521
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/62521/1/MPRA_paper_62521.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robles, Miguel & Torero, Maximo & von Braun, Joachim, 2009. "When speculation matters," Issue briefs 57, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. Jian Yang & R. Brian Balyeat & David J. Leatham, 2005. "Futures Trading Activity and Commodity Cash Price Volatility," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1‐2), pages 297-323, January.
    3. Baffes, John & Haniotis, Tassos, 2010. "Placing the 2006/08 commodity price boom into perspective," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5371, The World Bank.
    4. Robles, Miguel & Torero, Maximo & von Braun, Joachim, 2009. "When speculation matters," Issue Briefs 49999, CGIAR, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    5. Hernandez, Manuel A. & Robles, Miguel & Torero, Maximo, 2011. "Beyond the numbers: How urban households in Central America responded to the recent global crises," Issue briefs 67, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:dau:papers:123456789/12798 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Yankou Diasso, 2014. "Dynamique du prix international du coton : aléas, aversion au risque et chaos," Recherches économiques de Louvain, De Boeck Université, vol. 80(4), pages 53-86.
    3. Mayer, Herbert & Rathgeber, Andreas & Wanner, Markus, 2017. "Financialization of metal markets: Does futures trading influence spot prices and volatility?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 300-316.
    4. Kuhanathan Ano Sujithan & Sanvi Avouyi-Dovi & Lyes Koliai, 2014. "On the determinants of food price volatility," Post-Print hal-01511900, HAL.
    5. Minot, Nicholas, 2014. "Food price volatility in sub-Saharan Africa: Has it really increased?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 45-56.
    6. Cheng, Sheng & Cao, Yan, 2019. "On the relation between global food and crude oil prices: An empirical investigation in a nonlinear framework," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 422-432.
    7. Fasanya, Ismail & Akinbowale, Seun, 2019. "Modelling the return and volatility spillovers of crude oil and food prices in Nigeria," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 186-205.
    8. Etienne, Xiaoli L. & Irwin, Scott H. & Garcia, Philip, 2013. "Dissecting Corn Price Movements with Directed Acyclic Graphs," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 151279, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    9. Raj M. Desai & Nita Rudra, 2016. "Trade, poverty, and social protection in developing countries," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2016-139, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    10. Bernadette Andreosso-O’Callaghan & M. Zolin, 2010. "Long-term Cereal Price Changes: How Important is the Speculative Element?," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 17(4), pages 624-637, December.
    11. Ojogho, Osaihiomwan & Egware, Robert Awotu, 2015. "Price Generating Process And Volatility In Nigerian Agricultural Commodities Market," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 3(4), pages 1-10, October.
    12. C. Peter Timmer, 2014. "The political economy of food security: a behavioral perspective," Chapters, in: Raghbendra Jha & Raghav Gaiha & Anil B. Deolalikar (ed.), Handbook on Food, chapter 2, pages 22-40, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    13. Manisha Pradhananga, 2016. "Financialization and the rise in co-movement of commodity prices," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(5), pages 547-566, September.
    14. Stephanie-Carolin Grosche, 2014. "What Does Granger Causality Prove? A Critical Examination of the Interpretation of Granger Causality Results on Price Effects of Index Trading in Agricultural Commodity Markets," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(2), pages 279-302, June.
    15. Benoît Guilleminot & Jean-Jacques Ohana & Steve Ohana, 2014. "The interaction of speculators and index investors in agricultural derivatives markets," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(6), pages 767-792, November.
    16. Raj M. Desai & Nita Rudra, 2016. "Trade, poverty, and social protection in developing countries," WIDER Working Paper Series 139, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    17. Baldi, Lucia & Peri, Massimo & Vandone, Daniela, 2011. "Price Discovery in Agricultural Commodities: The Shifting Relationship Between Spot and Future Prices," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114237, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    18. repec:fpr:export:1344 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Lafang Wang & Wenjing Duan & Dan Qu & Shaojun Wang, 2018. "What matters for global food price volatility?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1549-1572, June.
    20. Holtfort, Thomas & Horsch, Andreas & Schwarz, Joachim, 2022. "Economic, technological and social drivers of cryptocurrency market evolution and its managerial impact," Freiberg Working Papers 2022/01, TU Bergakademie Freiberg, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    21. Grosche, Stephanie, "undated". "Limitations of Granger Causality Analysis to assess the price effects from the financialization of agricultural commodity markets under bounded rationality," Discussion Papers 121868, University of Bonn, Institute for Food and Resource Economics.
    22. Riza Emekter & Benjamas Jirasakuldech & Peter Went, 2012. "Rational speculative bubbles and commodities markets: application of duration dependence test," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(7), pages 581-596, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:62521. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.