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New and Current Evidence on Determinants of Aggregate Federal Personal Income Tax Evasion in the United States

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  • Cebula, Richard

Abstract

Using the most current data available, this study seeks to identify any new as well as traditional determinants of personal income tax evasion. A variety of empirical estimates find that income tax rates, the IRS audit rate and IRS penalty interest rates, and the unemployment rate all influence tax evasion. In addition, rarely investigated variables including the tax free interest rate, the public’s job approval rating of the President, and the public’s dissatisfaction with government, along with previously unstudied variables, namely, the real interest rate yield on Moody’s Baa-rated long term corporate bonds and the real interest rate yield on three year Treasury notes, also affect income tax evasion.

Suggested Citation

  • Cebula, Richard, 2010. "New and Current Evidence on Determinants of Aggregate Federal Personal Income Tax Evasion in the United States," MPRA Paper 49434, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:49434
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    Cited by:

    1. Felix Schmutz, 2016. "Measuring the Invisible: An Overview of and Outlook for Tax Non-Compliance Estimates and Measurement Methods for Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 152(II), pages 125-177, June.
    2. Richard J. Cebula, 2014. "The underground economy in the U.S.A.: preliminary new evidence on the impact of income tax rates (and other factors) on aggregate tax evasion 1975-2008," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 67(271), pages 451-481.
    3. David Rodriguez-Justicia & Bernd Theilen, 2023. "Ideological alignment, public sector size and tax morale: empirical evidence from OECD economies," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-11, December.
    4. Philipp Doerrenberg & Andreas Peichl, 2022. "Tax Morale and the Role of Social Norms and Reciprocity - Evidence from a Randomized Survey Experiment," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 78(1-2), pages 44-86.
    5. Rajeev K. Goel & Rati Ram & Friedrich Schneider & Ashley Potempa, 2020. "International movements of money and men: impact on the informal economy," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 44(1), pages 179-197, January.
    6. Siglé, Maarten & Goslinga, Sjoerd & Speklé, Roland & van der Hel, Lisette & Veldhuizen, Robbert, 2018. "Corporate tax compliance: Is a change towards trust-based tax strategies justified?," Journal of International Accounting, Auditing and Taxation, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 3-16.
    7. Julie Berry Cullen & Nicholas Turner & Ebonya Washington, 2021. "Political Alignment, Attitudes toward Government, and Tax Evasion," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 135-166, August.
    8. Mohammed Mahdi Obaid & Noraza Mat Udin, 2020. "Corruption and Tax Noncompliance Variables: An Empirical Investigation From Yemen," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 11(4), pages 52-63, July.
    9. Felix Schmutz, 2016. "Measuring the Invisible: An Overview of and Outlook for Tax Non-Compliance Estimates and Measurement Methods for Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 152(2), pages 125-177, April.
    10. Choi, Eun-Young & Johnson, Thomas G., 2014. "Economic Impact of the Informal Childcare Sector in Kansas," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 44(1).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    tax evasion; audit rate; IRS penalties; tax rates; real interest rates;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance

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