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Model projections and policy reviews for energy saving in China's service sector

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  • Zhang, Lin

Abstract

Energy efficiency of buildings in the service sector is becoming increasingly important in China due to the structural shift of the economy from industry to services. This paper employs a bottom-up cohort model to simulate current energy saving policies and to make projections for future energy use and CO2 emissions for the period 2000-2030 in the Chinese service sector. The analysis shows that energy demand in the service sector will approximately triple in 2030, far beyond the target of quadrupling GDP while only doubling energy use. However, it is feasible to achieve the target of emission reduction by 40% in 2020 even under the poor state of compliance rate of building standard. This paper also highlights four crucial aspects of designing optimal energy saving policies for China's service sector based on the model results.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Lin, 2013. "Model projections and policy reviews for energy saving in China's service sector," MPRA Paper 47061, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:47061
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/47061/1/MPRA_paper_47061.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. von Hirschhausen, Christian & Andres, Michael, 2000. "Long-term electricity demand in China -- From quantitative to qualitative growth?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 231-241, April.
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    3. Cheng, Chia-Chin, 2010. "A new NAMA framework for dispersed energy end-use sectors," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 5614-5624, October.
    4. World Bank, 2006. "World Development Indicators 2006," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 8151.
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    6. Cai, W.G. & Wu, Y. & Zhong, Y. & Ren, H., 2009. "China building energy consumption: Situation, challenges and corresponding measures," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 2054-2059, June.
    7. Lin, Jiang & Zhou, Nan & Levine, Mark & Fridley, David, 2008. "Taking out 1 billion tons of CO2: The magic of China's 11th Five-Year Plan?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 954-970, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Vishal Chandr Jaunky and Lin Zhang, 2016. "Convergence of Operational Efficiency in Chinas Provincial Power Sectors," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(China Spe).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Energy saving policy; Bottom-up; Service sector;

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy

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