Toolkit for stimulating corporate lending
Following the 2009 recession, a turnaround in corporate lending has not occurred in Hungary. Therefore, the risk of the phenomenon known in the literature as a creditless recovery has risen significantly. Based on empirical analyses, a creditless recovery leads to a slower and protracted economic recovery. Moreover, the escalating sovereign debt crisis in the peripheral euro area and banking regulatory responses in the EU may lead to more pronounced credit supply constraints by European banks, which could negatively affect the subsidiaries in the CEE region. The MNB staff has written numerous internal reports on the reasons behind the subdued lending and policy recommendations for reversing this trend. In this paper, we summarize the findings of this background research and review the state’s possible intervention alternatives to boosting corporate lending on both the supply and demand side. We think that the most effective way of intervention is that the public sector assumes partial credit risk from the banking sector, since a contraction in corporate lending can be attributed to credit supply constraints stemming from strong risk aversion by banks, making interest rates cuts ineffective in stimulating demand for loans. At the same time, it is important to note that state interventions involve substantial fiscal costs; simple, cost-free solutions do not exist among the options. Partial credit risk assumption is not an exemption either, as it translates into government expenditures quickly due to loan losses.
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- Gergely Fábián & András Hudecz & Gábor Szigel, 2010. "Decline in corporate lending in Hungary and across the Central and East European region during the crisis," MNB Bulletin, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary), vol. 5(3), pages 17-28, October.
- International Monetary Fund, 2011. "Creditless Recoveries," IMF Working Papers 11/58, International Monetary Fund.
- Bartoli, Francesca & Ferri, Giovanni & Murro, Pierluigi & Rotondi, Zeno, 2013.
"Bank–firm relations and the role of Mutual Guarantee Institutions at the peak of the crisis,"
Journal of Financial Stability,
Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 90-104.
- Francesca Bartoli & Giovanni Ferri & Pierluigi Murro & Zeno Rotondi, 2011. "Bank-firm relations and the role of Mutual Guarantee Institutions during the crisis," series 0034, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Metodi Matematici - Università di Bari, revised Jan 2011.
- Gábor P. Kiss, 2011. "Moving target indication: Fiscal indicators employed by the Magyar Nemzeti Bank," MNB Occasional Papers 2011/92, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary).
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