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International Business Cycles and Remittance Flows

  • Mallick, Debdulal
  • Cooray, Arusha

In this paper, we investigate the macroeconomic determinants and the effect of host country business cycles on remittance inflows. Estimating a dynamic panel data model by the system GMM, we document that remittance inflows are pro-cyclical to home country volatility but counter-cyclical to the volatility in host countries. This result does not hold for high income counties for which remittance inflows are acyclical to home country volatility but pro-cyclical to the volatility in host countries. For a host country, remittance outflows are counter-cyclical to the volatility of home countries. Trade openness is the single most important factor that determines both remittance inflows and outflows for the home and host countries, respectively.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/25675/1/MPRA_paper_25675.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 25675.

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Date of creation: Aug 2010
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:25675
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  1. Richard H. Adams, Jr. & John Page, 2003. "International migration, remittances, and poverty in developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3179, The World Bank.
  2. Beyer, Andreas & Farmer, Roger E.A., 2007. "Natural rate doubts," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 797-825, March.
  3. Blundell, R. & Bond, S., 1995. "Initial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models," Economics Papers 104, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  4. Frank Windmeijer, 2000. "A finite sample correction for the variance of linear two-step GMM estimators," IFS Working Papers W00/19, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  5. Donald Cox & Zekeriya Eser & Emmanuel Jimenez, 1996. "Motives for Private Transfers over the Life Cycle: An Analytical Framework and Evidence for Peru," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 327., Boston College Department of Economics.
  6. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
  7. Dalia Hakura & Ralph Chami & Peter Montiel, 2009. "Remittances: An Automatic Output Stabilizer?," IMF Working Papers 09/91, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Vargas-Silva, Carlos, 2008. "Are remittances manna from heaven? A look at the business cycle properties of remittances," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 290-303, December.
  9. Koustas, Zisimos & Serletis, Apostolos, 2003. "Long-run Phillips-type trade-offs in European Union countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 679-701, July.
  10. Lucas, Robert E B & Stark, Oded, 1985. "Motivations to Remit: Evidence from Botswana," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(5), pages 901-18, October.
  11. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
  12. Serdar Sayan, 2004. "Guest Workers' Remittances and Output Fluctuations in Host and Home Countries : The Case of Remittances from Turkish Workers in Germany," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 40(6), pages 68-81, November.
  13. Şule Akkoyunlu & Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2008. "A Link Between Workers' Remittances and Business Cycles in Germany and Turkey," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 44(5), pages 23-40, September.
  14. Mahalia Jackman & Roland Craigwell & Winston Moore, 2009. "Economic volatility and remittances: evidence from SIDS," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 36(2), pages 135-146, May.
  15. Giuliano, Paola & Ruiz-Arranz, Marta, 2006. "Remittances, Financial Development, and Growth," IZA Discussion Papers 2160, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
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