Has core inflation been doing a good job in Brazil?
This paper assesses the performance of the core inflation measures calculated by the Brazilian Central Bank (BCB). The evidence shows that they do not meet some key statistical criteria that a good core inflation should have: unbiasedness and the ability to forecast inflation. That performance stems, to a large extent, from the lack of a well-grounded statistical and economical basis behind them. Three new measures are built and assessed using the same criteria. The evidence shows that their behaviour is more in accordance to what the theory claims. However, they still lack the ability to help forecasting inflation. Hence both the BCB and the market should use core inflation cautiously.
|Date of creation:||Dec 2009|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1996.
"Measuring Short-Run Inflation for Central Bankers,"
NBER Working Papers
5786, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hogan, Seamus & Marianne Johnson & Thérèse Laflèche, 2001. "Core Inflation," Technical Reports 89, Bank of Canada.
- Francisco Marcos Rodrigues Figueiredo, 2001. "Evaluating Core Inflation Measures for Brazil," Working Papers Series 14, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
- Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1993.
"The consumer price index as a measure of inflation,"
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q IV, pages 15-24.
- Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1993. "The Consumer Price Index as a Measure of Inflation," NBER Working Papers 4505, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Danny Quah & Shaun Vahey, 1995.
"Measuring Core Inflation,"
Bank of England working papers
31, Bank of England.
- Andrews, Donald W K, 1991.
"Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation,"
Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-58, May.
- Donald W.K. Andrews, 1988. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 877R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 1989.
- Carlos Robalo Marques & Pedro Duarte Neves & Luís Morais Sarmento, 2000.
"Evaluating Core Inflation Indicators,"
w200003, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Robalo Marques, Carlos & Duarte Neves, Pedro & Morais Sarmento, Luis, 2003. "Evaluating core inflation indicators," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 765-775, July.
- Pedro Duarte Neves & Luís Morais Sarmento & Carlos Robalo Marques, 1999. "Evaluating core inflation indicators," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Frederic S. Mishkin, 2007. "Headline versus core inflation in the conduct of monetary policy : a speech at the Business Cycles, International Transmission and Macroeconomic Policies Conference, HEC Montreal, Montreal, Canada, Oc," Speech 332, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Smith, Julie K, 2004. "Weighted Median Inflation: Is This Core Inflation?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(2), pages 253-63, April.
- Robert Rich & Charles Steindel, 2005. "A review of core inflation and an evaluation of its measures," Staff Reports 236, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti & Rodney L. Wiggins II, 1997.
"Efficient Inflation Estimation,"
NBER Working Papers
6183, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Pietro Catte & Torsten Sløk, 2005. "Assessing the value of indicators of underlying inflation for monetary policy," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 461, OECD Publishing.
- William T. Gavin & Rachel J. Mandal, 2002. "Predicting inflation: food for thought," The Regional Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan., pages 4-9.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:23340. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.