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Predicting inflation: food for thought


  • William T. Gavin
  • Rachel J. Mandal


Because food prices are no longer volatile, it makes little sense to exclude them anymore from calculations to determine core inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • William T. Gavin & Rachel J. Mandal, 2002. "Predicting inflation: food for thought," The Regional Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan., pages 4-9.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlre:y:2002:i:jan.:p:4-9

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Peter C.B. Phillips & Shu-Ping Shi & Jun Yu, 2011. "Testing for Multiple Bubbles," Working Papers 09-2011, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 1065-1188, November.
    3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "Recovery from Financial Crises: Evidence from 100 Episodes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(5), pages 50-55, May.
    4. Morris A. Davis & Andreas Lehnert & Robert F. Martin, 2008. "The Rent-Price Ratio For The Aggregate Stock Of Owner-Occupied Housing," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 54(2), pages 279-284, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Eduardo Morales Ramos, 2009. "La evolución de la pobreza difusa multidimensional en México, 1994-2006," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(2), pages 209-270, abril-jun.
    2. da Silva Filho, Tito Nícias Teixeira & Figueiredo, Francisco Marcos Rodrigues, 2011. "Has Core Inflation Been Doing a Good Job in Brazil?," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 65(2), June.
    3. Michael Pedersen, 2009. "Un indicador líder compuesto para la actividad económica en Chile," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(2), pages 181-208, abril-jun.
    4. Jim Lee, 2009. "Food and Energy Prices in Core Inflation," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(2), pages 847-860.
    5. Frank Browne & David Cronin, 2009. "Una perspectiva monetaria de la relación entre los precios de productos básicos y los precios al consumidor," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(2), pages 271-296, abril-jun.
    6. Laura D’Amato & Lorena Garegnani & Emilio Fernando Blanco, 2009. "Pronóstico de inflación en Argentina: ¿modelos individuales o pooling de pronósticos?," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(2), pages 151-179, abril-jun.
    7. Browne, Frank & Cronin, David, 2008. "A Monetary Perspective on the Relationship between Commodity and Consumer Prices," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 77-90, February.

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    Food prices ; Futures;


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