Are Core Inflation Directional Forecasts Informative?
Core inflation is under attack. Empirically, experts have become increasingly disappointed with its actual performance. Theoretically, while some claim that it is a key inflation predictor others argue that, by construction, that cannot be one of its main properties, at least in the short run. Even if true, core inflation could still be useful if it provides good directional inflation forecasts. The evidence presented here using U.S., Canadian and Brazilian data shows that this does not seem to be the case. Directional forecasts are often no better than a coin toss, especially from the level model. The gap model’s forecasts are wrong, on average, at least 20% of the time. More crucially, they are usually no better than a simple moving average of headline inflation.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kevin Clinton, 2006. "Core inflation at the Bank of Canada: A critique," Working Papers 1077, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- da Silva Filho, Tito Nícias Teixeira & Figueiredo, Francisco Marcos Rodrigues, 2011.
"Has Core Inflation Been Doing a Good Job in Brazil?,"
Revista Brasileira de Economia,
FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 65(2), May.
- Da Silva Filho, Tito Nícias Teixeira & Figueiredo, Francisco Marcos Rodrigues, 2009. "Has core inflation been doing a good job in Brazil?," MPRA Paper 23340, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Alan S. Blinder, 2006. "Monetary Policy Today: Sixteen Questions and about Twelve Answers," Working Papers 73, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
- James B. Bullard, 2011.
"Measuring inflation: the core is rotten,"
180, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:266. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Francisco Marcos Rodrigues Figueiredo)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.