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Türkiye’de Büyüme ve İhracat Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkileri
[Causality Relations between Growth and Export in Turkey]

Author

Listed:
  • Bilgin, Cevat
  • Sahbaz, Ahmet

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to investigate the relations between export and growth for Turkey by using 1987-2006 monthly data. In other words, export-led growth hypothesis is being tested for the period of eighties and nineties. Industrial production index is used for the proxy of gross domestic product since we use monthly data. For the variables of export, import, terms of trade and industrial production index, first of all ADF unit root tests are carried out. All of the variables are found to be same degree integrated. Thus, long run relations among the variables are examined in the framework of Johansen co-integration analysis. Provided with the long run relation, vector error correction model (VECM) is estimated. Granger causality tests based on VECM and modified Wald tests (MWALD) defined by Toda Yamamoto (1995) are carried out to determine the directions of the relations among the variables. According to the test results, export-led growth is verified for the specified period.

Suggested Citation

  • Bilgin, Cevat & Sahbaz, Ahmet, 2009. "Türkiye’de Büyüme ve İhracat Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkileri
    [Causality Relations between Growth and Export in Turkey]
    ," MPRA Paper 21985, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2009.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:21985
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/21985/1/MPRA_paper_21985.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Judith Giles & Cara Williams, 2001. "Export-led growth: a survey of the empirical literature and some non-causality results. Part 2," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(4), pages 445-470.
    2. Alwyn Young, 1991. "Learning by Doing and the Dynamic Effects of International Trade," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(2), pages 369-405.
    3. Kunst, Robert M & Marin, Dalia, 1989. "On Exports and Productivity: A Causal Analysis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(4), pages 699-703, November.
    4. Kavoussi, Rostam M., 1984. "Export expansion and economic growth : Further empirical evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 241-250.
    5. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J & Manuchehr Irandoust, 2001. "Time-series evidence for Balassa's export-led growth hypothesis," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 355-365.
    6. Alwyn Young, 1991. "Learning by Doing and the Dynamic Effects of International Trade," NBER Working Papers 3577, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Judith Giles & Cara Williams, 2001. "Export-led growth: a survey of the empirical literature and some non-causality results. Part 2," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(4), pages 445-470.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eco:journ1:2017-03-94 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Cagri Levent Uslu, 2016. "Cointegration and Causality between Turkish, Imports and GDP: A Structural Analysis," Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, Eurasian Publications, vol. 4(2), pages 91-100.
    3. Fatma Zeren & Burcu Kilinc Savrul, 2013. "Revisited Export-Led Growth Hypothesis For Selected European Countries: A Panel Hidden Cointegration Approach," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 18(1), pages 134-151, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Export-led growth; Johansen co-integration; Granger causality; modified Wald test;

    JEL classification:

    • F11 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Neoclassical Models of Trade
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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