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Los mercados de opinión pública
[The markets of public opinion]

Author

Listed:
  • Estrada, Fernando

Abstract

This paper proposes a central idea in diffusion research is that influential –a minority of individuals who influence an exceptional number of their peers- are important to formation of public opinion. Here we examine this idea, which we call the “influential hypothesis”, using the experiments of Watts-Salganik-Dodds in computer simulation of interpersonal influence processes with the works of Herbert Simon in “Bounded Rationality”. Under most conditions that we consider, we find that large cascades of influence are driven not by influential, but by a critical mass of easily influenced individuals. Although our results do no exclude the possibility that influential can be important, they suggest that the influential hypothesis requires more careful specification and testing than it has received.

Suggested Citation

  • Estrada, Fernando, 2010. "Los mercados de opinión pública
    [The markets of public opinion]
    ," MPRA Paper 20161, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:20161
    as

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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/20161/1/MPRA_paper_20161.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Massimo Egidi & Luigi Marengo, 2002. "Cognition, institutions, near decomposability: rethinking Herbert Simon's contribution," CEEL Working Papers 0206, Cognitive and Experimental Economics Laboratory, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
    2. Langlois, Richard N., 2003. "Cognitive comparative advantage and the organization of work: Lessons from Herbert Simon's vision of the future," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 167-187, April.
    3. Galam, Serge & Vignes, Annick, 2005. "Fashion, novelty and optimality: an application from Physics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 351(2), pages 605-619.
    4. Simon, Herbert A, 1979. "Rational Decision Making in Business Organizations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 493-513, September.
    5. Simon, Herbert A., 1984. "On the behavioral and rational foundations of economic dynamics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 35-55, March.
    6. repec:aph:ajpbhl:1991:81:2:168-171_6 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Kaufman, Bruce E., 1999. "Emotional arousal as a source of bounded rationality," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 135-144, February.
    8. Herbert A. Simon, 1991. "Organizations and Markets," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 25-44, Spring.
    9. Minkes, A. L. & Foxall, Gordon R., 2003. "Herbert Simon and the concept of dispersed entrepreneurship," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 221-228, April.
    10. Simon, Herbert A., 2000. "Barriers and bounds to Rationality," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-2), pages 243-253, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economics of Networks; Game Theory; Public Opinion; Mass Media; Information Systems; Social Methods;

    JEL classification:

    • D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles
    • D70 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - General
    • D11 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Theory
    • C70 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - General
    • D85 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Network Formation
    • B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology

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