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Hversu vel tekst til með verðbólguspár greiningardeilda?
[How accurate are the inflation forecasts published by the commercial banks?]

Author

Listed:
  • Olafsdottir, Katrin
  • Sigurdsson, Kari

Abstract

Every month the commercial banks in Iceland publish their inflation forecast for the coming month. This paper examines how accurate these forecasts were from 2000 to 2006. Most of the forecasts have similar accuracy where the inflation rate in the month in question is underestimated by 2 to 6 points. We did not find that a forecast is more likely to be accurate in a specific month if it was accurate in the previous month.

Suggested Citation

  • Olafsdottir, Katrin & Sigurdsson, Kari, 2007. "Hversu vel tekst til með verðbólguspár greiningardeilda?
    [How accurate are the inflation forecasts published by the commercial banks?]
    ," MPRA Paper 18288, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:18288
    as

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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/18288/1/MPRA_paper_18288.pdf
    File Function: original version
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mills, Terence C. & Pepper, Gordon T., 1999. "Assessing the forecasters: an analysis of the forecasting records of the Treasury, the London Business School and the National Institute," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 247-257, July.
    2. Cumby, Robert E. & Modest, David M., 1987. "Testing for market timing ability : A framework for forecast evaluation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 169-189, September.
    3. Vassiliki Koutsogeorgopoulou, 2000. "A Post-Mortem on Economic Outlook Projections," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 274, OECD Publishing.
    4. Ash, J. C. K. & Smyth, D. J. & Heravi, S. M., 1998. "Are OECD forecasts rational and useful?: a directional analysis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 381-391, September.
    5. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, Paul, 1986. "Forecasting Economic Time Series," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 2, number 9780122951831 edited by Shell, Karl.
    6. Le Bihan, Herve & Sedillot, Franck, 2000. "Do core inflation measures help forecast inflation?: Out-of-sample evidence from French data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 261-266, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation; forecasts; root mean square error.;

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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