Futures Thinking and Strategic Foresight in Local Governance: Institutional and Local Government Leadership Challenges and Policy Options in Zamboanga Peninsula (Region IX), Philippines

Local governments face compound uncertainty from demographic change, climate risk, fiscal pressure, and security threats. Futures thinking and strategic foresight offer governance tools that help public institutions anticipate disruption and guide long-term policy choice. This article examines the institutional adoption of futures thinking and strategic foresight within local governments in the Zamboanga Peninsula (Region IX), Philippines. The study assesses leadership capacity, organizational readiness, planning practice, and intergovernmental coordination across provinces and cities in the region. The analysis uses official administrative data, development plans, budget records, and key informant evidence from provincial and city governments. Findings show that Region IX local governments rely on compliance-driven planning cycles, short-term investment programming, and fragmented data systems. Executive leadership turnover, limited technical staff, and weak foresight mandates constrain institutional learning. Local governments align plans with national frameworks yet lack anticipatory governance tools that support scenario building, horizon scanning, and adaptive policy design. The article presents a data-driven institutional matrix that maps foresight capacity across governance functions. Policy options focus on leadership development, statutory integration of foresight in local planning, regional knowledge platforms, and incentives within intergovernmental fiscal systems. The study contributes empirical evidence to local governance scholarship by linking futures thinking to leadership practice in a developing country context.