IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/125397.html

Wartime monetary policy: Monetary policy options to adopt during war

Author

Listed:
  • Ozili, Peterson K
  • Okeke, Esther Ngozika
  • Obiora, Kingsley I.

Abstract

Wars occur frequently in the world today. Wars cause economic distortions, and they lead to adverse human, economic and social consequences. Monetary policy actions can be used to cushion the adverse effects of war on the economy. Monetary authorities can respond to war by developing wartime monetary policy frameworks to control inflation and to support the war economy throughout the war. This article explores some monetary policy options that central banks can adopt during war. They include increase interest rate at the start of the war to control inflation expectations, hold interest rate at the same level when there is high uncertainty around war, decrease interest rate when war is battering the economy on multiple fronts, decrease cash reserve requirements on bank deposits during war as was observed in Russia, keep liquidity ratio fixed or increase it during war as was seen in Ukraine, the sale of government securities during war should be considered as well as and the unpopular and least advisable option of printing money to increase money supply during war. The recommended wartime monetary policy options in the study are useful to economists, central banks and governments who are facing war in their countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Ozili, Peterson K & Okeke, Esther Ngozika & Obiora, Kingsley I., 2025. "Wartime monetary policy: Monetary policy options to adopt during war," MPRA Paper 125397, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:125397
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/125397/1/MPRA_paper_125397.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bekaert, Geert & Hoerova, Marie & Lo Duca, Marco, 2013. "Risk, uncertainty and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(7), pages 771-788.
    2. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2009. "Is Monetary Policy Effective during Financial Crises?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 573-577, May.
    3. William D. Nordhaus, 2002. "The Economic Consequences of a War with Iraq," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1387, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    4. Ergin Akalpler & Dilgash Duhok, 2018. "Does monetary policy affect economic growth: evidence from Malaysia," Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 34(1), pages 2-20, February.
    5. Peterson K. Ozili, 2023. "Impact of Monetary Policy on Financial Inclusion in Emerging Markets," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(7), pages 1-10, June.
    6. Pamfili Antipa & Christophe Chamley, 2017. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy in England during the French Wars (1793-1821)," Working papers 627, Banque de France.
    7. Cobham, David & Song, Mengdi, 2021. "Transitions between monetary policy frameworks and their effects on economic performance," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 311-329.
    8. Ganegodage, K. Renuka & Rambaldi, Alicia N., 2014. "Economic consequences of war: Evidence from Sri Lanka," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 42-53.
    9. Sam Levey, 2021. "Modern Money and the War Treasury," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(4), pages 1034-1065, October.
    10. William D. Nordhaus, 2002. "The Economic Consequences of a War in Iraq," NBER Working Papers 9361, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Ben S. Bernanke, 2020. "The New Tools of Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(4), pages 943-983, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Marfatia, Hardik A., 2015. "Monetary policy's time-varying impact on the US bond markets: Role of financial stress and risks," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 103-123.
    2. Benedetto, Graziella & Rugani, Benedetto & Vázquez-Rowe, Ian, 2014. "Rebound effects due to economic choices when assessing the environmental sustainability of wine," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(P1), pages 167-173.
    3. Huntington, Hillard G., 2004. "Shares, gaps and the economy's response to oil disruptions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 415-424, May.
    4. Rigobon, Roberto & Sack, Brian, 2005. "The effects of war risk on US financial markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1769-1789, July.
    5. Olaf J. de Groot, 2012. "Analyzing the costs of military engagement," Economics of Peace and Security Journal, EPS Publishing, vol. 7(2), pages 41-49, July.
    6. Niall Ferguson, 2008. "Earning from History? Financial Markets and the Approach of World Wars," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(1 (Spring), pages 431-490.
    7. Claudio Borio & Boris Hofmann, 2017. "Is Monetary Policy Less Effective When Interest Rates Are Persistently Low?," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Jonathan Hambur & John Simon (ed.),Monetary Policy and Financial Stability in a World of Low Interest Rates, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    8. Bodea, Cristina & Elbadawi, Ibrahim A., 2008. "Political violence and economic growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4692, The World Bank.
    9. Rose Adam Z. & Blomberg S. Brock, 2010. "Total Economic Consequences of Terrorist Attacks: Insights from 9/11," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 1-14, June.
    10. Laeven, Luc & Tong, Hui, 2012. "US monetary shocks and global stock prices," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 530-547.
    11. Tilman Bruck, 2005. "An Economic Analysis Of Security Policies," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(5), pages 375-389.
    12. William D. Nordhaus, 2007. "Who's Afraid of a Big Bad Oil Shock?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 38(2), pages 219-240.
    13. Amihud, Yakov & Wohl, Avi, 2004. "Political news and stock prices: The case of Saddam Hussein contracts," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 1185-1200, May.
    14. Edwards, Ryan D., 2014. "U.S. war costs: Two parts temporary, one part permanent," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 54-66.
    15. Steven J. Davis & Kevin M. Murphy & Robert H. Topel, 2006. "War in Iraq versus Containment," NBER Working Papers 12092, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Hoffmann, Vincent & Huynh, Luu Duc Toan & Wang, Mei, 2025. "What drives abnormal returns of stock markets in wartime? Evidence from 17 invasions," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    17. Jbir, Hamdi, 2024. "Impact of monetary and macroprudential policy shocks on systemic risk: what role for the central bank governance ?," MPRA Paper 125437, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2025.
    18. Kamin, Katrin, 2022. "Bilateral trade and conflict heterogeneity: The impact of conflict on trade revisited," Kiel Working Papers 2222, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    19. Shovon Sengupta & Sunny Kumar Singh & Tanujit Chakraborty, 2025. "Macroeconomic Forecasting for the G7 countries under Uncertainty Shocks," Papers 2510.23347, arXiv.org.
    20. Viscusi W. Kip, 2019. "The Mortality Cost Metric for the Costs of War," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 25(3), pages 1-10, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E59 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Other

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:125397. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.