The Interplay Between Fertility and Female Labor Market Dynamics in the Arab Region: A Time Series Analysis

This study investigates the complex relationship between fertility and female labor force participation in the Arab region, where sociocultural norms often constrain women’s economic empowerment. Utilizing panel data spanning 1991 to 2023 across 15 Arab countries, the analysis employs the Pooled Mean Group Autoregressive Distributed Lag (PMG-ARDL) model to account for potential endogeneity and dynamic heterogeneity. The results reveal that higher fertility rates reduce labor market participation among women aged 15–64, while unexpectedly increasing participation among younger women aged 15–24. However, when labor market conditions are considered, fertility is found to contribute to higher unemployment rates in both age groups. These findings underscore the need for policy interventions that support women’s employment, including expanded access to reproductive health services, flexible work arrangements, childcare provision, and broader gender equity measures. The study’s contribution lies in its region-wide, longitudinal perspective, offering new insights beyond prior country-specific or survey-based analyses.