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¿Son confiables las proyecciones del Relevamiento de Expectativas de Mercado del Banco Central de la República Argentina?
[Are the Projections of the Central Bank of the Argentina's Market Expectations Survey reliable?]

Author

Listed:
  • Frank, Luis

Abstract

The reliability of the REM as a predictor of key economic variables is evaluated 18 to 1 months before the publication of the final data. It is concluded that REM is not a reliable predictor beyond the 6-9 months prior to the month of publication, in general. This period, however, can be significantly shorter in financial variables. It would be advisable, however, to take these conclusions with caution given that the study covered only 3-8 years of REM's projections, depending on the variable, and one of those years is the one the COVID pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Frank, Luis, 2024. "¿Son confiables las proyecciones del Relevamiento de Expectativas de Mercado del Banco Central de la República Argentina? [Are the Projections of the Central Bank of the Argentina's Market Expectations Survey reliable?]," MPRA Paper 121180, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:121180
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/121180/1/MPRA_paper_121180.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stephen K. McNees, 1992. "How large are economic forecast errors?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jul, pages 25-42.
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    JEL classification:

    • C80 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - General
    • C89 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Other

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