IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/119238.html

Short-time work in search and matching models: Evidence from Germany during the Covid-19 crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Peltonen, Juho

Abstract

This paper estimates the extent to which unemployment in Germany would have been increased during the Covid-19 recession without a short-time work (STW) labor-market policy which enables employers to reduce temporarily the working hours of full-time workers. A Bayesian estimation of a general equilibrium model with a STW policy, and a simulation of a counterfactual model without STW, show that the German unemployment rate would have been 4.2 percentage points higher without the policy. These results indicate that the STW participates in preventing excess job destruction during economic downturns, and in stabilizing unemployment fluctuations over business cycles.

Suggested Citation

  • Peltonen, Juho, 2023. "Short-time work in search and matching models: Evidence from Germany during the Covid-19 crisis," MPRA Paper 119238, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:119238
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/119238/1/MPRA_paper_119238.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hochmuth, Brigitte & Kohlbrecher, Britta & Merkl, Christian & Gartner, Hermann, 2021. "Hartz IV and the decline of German unemployment: A macroeconomic evaluation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    2. Russell Cooper & Moritz Meyer & Immo Schott, 2017. "The Employment and Output Effects of Short-Time Work in Germany," NBER Working Papers 23688, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Gehrke, Britta & Lechthaler, Wolfgang & Merkl, Christian, 2019. "The German labor market during the Great Recession: Shocks and institutions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 192-208.
    4. Tito Boeri & Herbert Bruecker, 2011. "Short-time work benefits revisited: some lessons from the Great Recession [‘Reversed roles? Wage and employment effects of the current crisis’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 26(68), pages 697-765.
    5. Balleer, Almut & Gehrke, Britta & Lechthaler, Wolfgang & Merkl, Christian, 2016. "Does short-time work save jobs? A business cycle analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 99-122.
    6. Victoria Osuna & José Ignacio García Pérez, 2021. "Temporary layoffs, short-time work and COVID-19: the case of a dual labour market," Applied Economic Analysis, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 30(90), pages 248-262, December.
    7. Christian Merkl & Timo Sauerbier, 2024. "Public Employment Agency Reform, Matching Efficiency, and German Unemployment," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 72(1), pages 393-440, March.
    8. Mr. Shekhar Aiyar & Mai Dao, 2021. "The Effectiveness of Job-Retention Schemes: COVID-19 Evidence From the German States," IMF Working Papers 2021/242, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Christopher A. Pissarides & Barbara Petrongolo, 2001. "Looking into the Black Box: A Survey of the Matching Function," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(2), pages 390-431, June.
    10. Pierre Cahuc & Francis Kramarz & Sandra Nevoux, 2021. "The Heterogeneous Impact of Short-Time Work: From Saved Jobs to Windfall Effects," Sciences Po Economics Publications (main) hal-03881632, HAL.
    11. Krause, Michael U. & Uhlig, Harald, 2012. "Transitions in the German labor market: Structure and crisis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 64-79.
    12. Garey Ramey & Wouter J. den Haan & Joel Watson, 2000. "Job Destruction and Propagation of Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 482-498, June.
    13. Jean-Olivier Hairault & Francois Langot & Sophie Osotimehin, 2010. "Matching frictions, unemployment dynamics and the cost of business cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 13(4), pages 759-779, October.
    14. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/2ju03cb3kc9a3986bsibii70hd is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Armando Näf & Yannic Stucki & Jacqueline Thomet, 2022. "The Effects of Firing Costs on Labour Market Dynamics," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 89(354), pages 461-488, April.
    16. Andrey Launov & Klaus Wälde, 2013. "Estimating Incentive And Welfare Effects Of Nonstationary Unemployment Benefits," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1159-1198, November.
    17. repec:bla:ecpoli:v:26:y:2011:i:68:p:697-765 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Alexander Herzog-Stein & Patrick Nuess & Lennert Peede & Ulrike Stein, 2021. "Germanys Labour Market in Coronavirus Distress New Challenges to Safeguarding Employment," IMK Working Paper 209-2021, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    19. Daniel Kopp & Michael Siegenthaler, 2021. "Short-Time Work and Unemployment in and after the Great Recession [Does Employment Protection Inhibit Labor Market Flexibility? Lessons from Germany, France, and Belgium]," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 2283-2321.
    20. Julian Teichgräber & Simon Žužek & Jannik Hensel, 2022. "Optimal short-time work: screening for jobs at risk," ECON - Working Papers 402, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
    21. Tom Krebs & Martin Scheffel, 2013. "Macroeconomic Evaluation of Labor Market Reform in Germany," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 61(4), pages 664-701, December.
    22. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/2ju03cb3kc9a3986bsibii70hd is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Alexander Hijzen & Andrea Salvatori, 2022. "The impact of the COVID-19 crisis across different socio-economic groups and the role of job retention schemes - The case of Switzerland," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 268, OECD Publishing.
    24. Dale T. Mortensen & Christopher A. Pissarides, 1994. "Job Creation and Job Destruction in the Theory of Unemployment," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(3), pages 397-415.
    25. Andrey Launov & Klaus Wälde, 2013. "Estimating Incentive And Welfare Effects Of Nonstationary Unemployment Benefits," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 54, pages 1159-1198, November.
    26. Alexander Hijzen & Danielle Venn, 2011. "The Role of Short-Time Work Schemes during the 2008-09 Recession," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 115, OECD Publishing.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Peltonen, Juho, 2023. "On the efficiency of labor markets with short-time work policies," MPRA Paper 119165, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Wilhelm, Stefan, 2023. "Efficiency of short-time work schemes and the role of monetary policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    3. Cahuc, Pierre, 2024. "The micro and macro economics of short-time work," Handbook of Labor Economics,, Elsevier.
    4. Cahuc, Pierre, 2024. "The Micro and Macro Economics of Short-Time Work," CEPR Discussion Papers 19429, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Dengler, Thomas & Gehrke, Britta, 2021. "Short-Time Work and Precautionary Savings," IZA Discussion Papers 14329, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Hochmuth, Brigitte & Kohlbrecher, Britta & Merkl, Christian & Gartner, Hermann, 2021. "Hartz IV and the decline of German unemployment: A macroeconomic evaluation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    7. Gehrke, Britta & Lechthaler, Wolfgang & Merkl, Christian, 2019. "The German labor market during the Great Recession: Shocks and institutions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 192-208.
    8. Britta Gehrke & Brigitte Hochmuth, 2021. "Counteracting Unemployment in Crises: Non‐Linear Effects of Short‐Time Work Policy," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 123(1), pages 144-183, January.
    9. Julien Albertini & Xavier Fairise & Arthur Poirier & Anthony Terriau, 2022. "Short-Time Work Policies During the Covid-19 Pandemic," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 146, pages 123-172.
    10. Christian Merkl & Timo Sauerbier, 2024. "Public Employment Agency Reform, Matching Efficiency, and German Unemployment," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 72(1), pages 393-440, March.
    11. Bermudez, Natalia & Dejemeppe, Muriel & Tarullo, Giulia, 2023. "Theory and Empirics of Short-Time Work: A Review," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1348, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    12. repec:iab:iabdpa:201714 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Dengler, Thomas & Gehrke, Britta & Zessner-Spitzenberg, Leopold, 2024. "Short-Time Work and Precautionary Savings," ECON WPS - Working Papers in Economic Theory and Policy 02/2024, TU Wien, Institute of Statistics and Mathematical Methods in Economics, Economics Research Unit.
    14. Diaz, Antonia & Dolado, Juan J. & Jáñez, Álvaro & Wellschmied, Felix, 2025. "Labor reallocation effects of furlough schemes: Evidence from two recessions in Spain," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    15. Michael U. Krause & Thomas A. Lubik, 2014. "Modeling Labor Markets in Macroeconomics: Search and Matching," Working Paper 14-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    16. Carrillo-Tudela, Carlos & Launov, Andrey & Robin, Jean-Marc, 2021. "The fall in german unemployment: A flow analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    17. Julio G. Fournier Gabela & Luis Sarmiento, 2020. "Kurzarbeit and Natural Disasters: How Effective Are Short-Time Working Allowances in Avoiding Unemployment?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1909, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    18. Julian Teichgräber & Simon Žužek & Jannik Hensel, 2022. "Optimal short-time work: screening for jobs at risk," ECON - Working Papers 402, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
    19. Launov, Andrey & Wälde, Klaus, 2016. "The employment effect of reforming a public employment agency," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 140-164.
    20. Moritz Drechsel‐Grau & Andreas Peichl & Kai D. Schmid & Johannes F. Schmieder & Hannes Walz & Stefanie Wolter, 2022. "Inequality and income dynamics in Germany," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(4), pages 1593-1635, November.
    21. repec:iab:iabdpa:201727 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Reamonn Lydon & Thomas Y. Mathä & Stephen Millard, 2019. "Short-time work in the Great Recession: firm-level evidence from 20 EU countries," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 8(1), pages 1-29, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:119238. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.