Migration Experience of the Baltic Countries in the Context of Economic Crisis

The Baltic countries, which experienced intensive outflow of labor during the first five years after joining the EU provide an interesting case also for a study of migration response to economic shocks. The behavior of the Baltic migrants was different from that of their counterparts from other NMS. During the economic crisis of 2009-2010 and its aftermath, mobile citizens of other countries that joined the EU in 2004, responded primarily to the worsening economic situation in host old member states: emigration slowed down, while return migration intensified. By contrast, the behavior of the Baltic mobile citizens was, at large, driven rather by the dramatic rise of unemployment and fall of household income in their home countries. A new emigration wave emerged from each of the three Baltic countries: outflows doubled or almost doubled compared to the pre-crisis levels. More importantly, in 2013 emigration was well above the pre-crisis levels in all three countries despite resumed economic growth and massive outflow of population during the previous years. This chapter offers a theoretical framework and empirical evidence for understanding the patterns of emigration from the Baltic countries in the 21st century. The focus is on emigrants' selectivity with respect to human capital, ethnicity, and citizenship, as well as on labor market outcomes. We also assess the demographic and economic implications of recent emigration.