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The Causal Relationship between Private Sector Credit Growth and Economic Growth in Bangladesh: Use of Toda-Yamamoto Granger Causality test in VAR Model

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  • Paul, Uttam Chandra

Abstract

This paper examines the causal relationship between private sector credit growth and economic growth in Bangladesh by using annual time series data over the period of 1976-2017. To investigate this relationship, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Approach has been used. In addition, this paper examines the direction of causality by adopting the Toda-Yamamoto procedure of Granger Causality test in the VAR model. The empirical results show that the annual growth rate of private sector credit (PC) and industrial production index (IPI) have a positive and significant effect on annual growth rate of GDP in both long-run and short-run. But there is only a short-run positive effect of export (X) and a negative effect of broad money (BM) on GDP growth rate. Finally, the results of the Toda-Yamamoto Granger Causality test show that there is unidirectional causality from GDP growth rate to private sector credit growth rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul, Uttam Chandra, 2020. "The Causal Relationship between Private Sector Credit Growth and Economic Growth in Bangladesh: Use of Toda-Yamamoto Granger Causality test in VAR Model," MPRA Paper 104476, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 04 Dec 2020.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:104476
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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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