IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/104476.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Causal Relationship between Private Sector Credit Growth and Economic Growth in Bangladesh: Use of Toda-Yamamoto Granger Causality test in VAR Model

Author

Listed:
  • Paul, Uttam Chandra

Abstract

This paper examines the causal relationship between private sector credit growth and economic growth in Bangladesh by using annual time series data over the period of 1976-2017. To investigate this relationship, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Approach has been used. In addition, this paper examines the direction of causality by adopting the Toda-Yamamoto procedure of Granger Causality test in the VAR model. The empirical results show that the annual growth rate of private sector credit (PC) and industrial production index (IPI) have a positive and significant effect on annual growth rate of GDP in both long-run and short-run. But there is only a short-run positive effect of export (X) and a negative effect of broad money (BM) on GDP growth rate. Finally, the results of the Toda-Yamamoto Granger Causality test show that there is unidirectional causality from GDP growth rate to private sector credit growth rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul, Uttam Chandra, 2020. "The Causal Relationship between Private Sector Credit Growth and Economic Growth in Bangladesh: Use of Toda-Yamamoto Granger Causality test in VAR Model," MPRA Paper 104476, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 04 Dec 2020.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:104476
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/104476/1/MPRA_paper_104476.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Loayza, Norman V. & Ranciere, Romain, 2006. "Financial Development, Financial Fragility, and Growth," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(4), pages 1051-1076, June.
    2. Demetriades, Panicos O. & Hussein, Khaled A., 1996. "Does financial development cause economic growth? Time-series evidence from 16 countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 387-411, December.
    3. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    4. Thorsten Beck & Asli Demirguc-Kunt & Luc Laeven & Ross Levine, 2008. "Finance, Firm Size, and Growth," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(7), pages 1379-1405, October.
    5. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    6. Luintel, Kul B. & Khan, Mosahid, 1999. "A quantitative reassessment of the finance-growth nexus: evidence from a multivariate VAR," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 381-405, December.
    7. Robert G. King & Ross Levine, 1993. "Finance and Growth: Schumpeter Might Be Right," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(3), pages 717-737.
    8. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    9. Greenwood, Jeremy & Jovanovic, Boyan, 1990. "Financial Development, Growth, and the Distribution of Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 1076-1107, October.
    10. Mr. Giovanni Favara, 2003. "An Empirical Reassessment of the Relationship Between Finance and Growth," IMF Working Papers 2003/123, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Qazi Muhammad Adnan Hye, 2011. "Financial development index and economic growth: empirical evidence from India," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 12(2), pages 98-111, March.
    12. Cappiello, Lorenzo & Kadareja, Arjan & Kok, Christoffer & Protopapa, Marco, 2010. "Do bank loans and credit standards have an effect on output? A panel approach for the euro area," Working Paper Series 1150, European Central Bank.
    13. Fry, Maxwell J, 1978. "Money and Capital or Financial Deepening in Economic Development?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 10(4), pages 464-475, November.
    14. Ross Levine, 1997. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: Views and Agenda," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(2), pages 688-726, June.
    15. Mauro, Paolo, 1995. "Stock markets and growth: A brief caveat on precautionary savings," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 111-116, January.
    16. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
    17. Athanasios Vazakidis & Antonios Adamopoulos, 2009. "Credit Market Development and Economic Growth," American Journal of Economics and Business Administration, Science Publications, vol. 1(1), pages 34-40, March.
    18. Perera, N. & Paudel, R.C., 2009. "Financial Development and Economic Growth in Sri Lanka," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(1).
    19. Jordan Shan & Jianhong Qi, 2006. "Does Financial Development 'Lead' Economic Growth? The Case of China," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 7(1), pages 197-216, May.
    20. Qazi Muhammad Adnan Hye & Faridul Islam, 2013. "Does financial development hamper economic growth: empirical evidence from Bangladesh," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 558-582, June.
    21. Demetriades, Panicos O & Luintel, Kul B, 1996. "Financial Development, Economic Growth and Banker Sector Controls: Evidence from India," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(435), pages 359-374, March.
    22. Rahman, Habibur, 2004. "Financial Development-Economic Growth Nexus: A Case Study of Bangladesh," Bangladesh Development Studies, Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), vol. 30(3-4), pages 113-128, Sept-Dec.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Muhammad Shahbaz & Ijaz Ur Rehman & Ahmed Taneem Muzaffar, 2015. "Re-Visiting Financial Development and Economic Growth Nexus: The Role of Capitalization in Bangladesh," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 83(3), pages 452-471, September.
    2. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-485 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Samargandi, Nahla & Fidrmuc, Jan & Ghosh, Sugata, 2015. "Is the Relationship Between Financial Development and Economic Growth Monotonic? Evidence from a Sample of Middle-Income Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 66-81.
    4. Polat, Ali & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Ur Rehman, Ijaz & Satti, Saqlain Latif, 2013. "Revisiting Linkages between Financial Development, Trade Openness and Economic Growth in South Africa: Fresh Evidence from Combined Cointegration Test," MPRA Paper 51724, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Nov 2013.
    5. Samargandi, Nahla & Fidrmuc, Jan & Ghosh, Sugata, 2014. "Financial development and economic growth in an oil-rich economy: The case of Saudi Arabia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 267-278.
    6. Helmi Hamdi & Rashid Sbia & Bedri Kamil Onur Tas, 2014. "Financial Deepening and Economic Growth in Gulf Cooperation Council Countries," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(3), pages 459-473, September.
    7. Vighneswara Swamy & Munusamy Dharani, 2021. "Thresholds in finance–growth nexus: Evidence from G‐7 economies," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(1), pages 1-40, March.
    8. Swamy, Vighneswara & Dharani, Munusamy, 2019. "The dynamics of finance-growth nexus in advanced economies," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 122-146.
    9. Ang, James B. & McKibbin, Warwick J., 2007. "Financial liberalization, financial sector development and growth: Evidence from Malaysia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 215-233, September.
    10. Okuyan Hasan Aydın, 2022. "The Nexus of Financial Development and Economic Growth Across Developing Economies," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 17(1), pages 125-140, June.
    11. Popov, Alexander, 2017. "Evidence on finance and economic growth," Working Paper Series 2115, European Central Bank.
    12. Sarah Lynne Salvador Daway-Ducanes & Maria Socorro Gochoco-Bautista, 2019. "Manufacturing and Services Growth in Developing Economies: ‘Too Little’ Finance?," Progress in Development Studies, , vol. 19(1), pages 55-82, January.
    13. Sarkar, Prabirjit, 2011. "Does finance matter for growth? what the data show," MPRA Paper 32937, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Kirikkaleli, Dervis & Athari, Seyed Alireza, 2020. "Time-frequency co-movements between bank credit supply and economic growth in an emerging market: Does the bank ownership structure matter?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    15. Hacievliyagil Nuri & Eksi Ibrahim Halil, 2019. "A Micro Based Study on Bank Credit and Economic Growth: Manufacturing Sub-Sectors Analysis," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 14(1), pages 72-91, June.
    16. Michael Adusei, 2013. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: Evidence from Ghana," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 7(5), pages 61-76.
    17. Kumar, Ronald Ravinesh & Stauvermann, Peter Josef & Loganathan, Nanthakumar & Kumar, Radika Devi, 2015. "Exploring the role of energy, trade and financial development in explaining economic growth in South Africa: A revisit," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1300-1311.
    18. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2019. "Financial Development and Tax Revenue in Developing Countries: Investigating the International Trade and Economic Growth Channels," EconStor Preprints 206628, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    19. James B. Ang, 2008. "A Survey Of Recent Developments In The Literature Of Finance And Growth," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 536-576, July.
    20. Edoardo Gaffeo & Petya Garalova, 2014. "On the finance-growth nexus: additional evidence from Central and Eastern Europe countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 89-115, May.
    21. Kar Muhsin & Peker Osman & Kaplan Muhittin, 2008. "Trade Liberalization, Financial Development and Economic Growth in The Long Term: The Case of Turkey," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 3(2), pages 25-38, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bangladesh; GDP growth; Private sector credit growth; Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Approach; Toda-Yamamoto Granger Causality test.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:104476. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.