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Establishing the Link Between Poverty and Changes in Climatic Conditions in the Philippines

Author

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  • Agustin L. Arcenas

    (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman)

Abstract

This paper investigates whether changes in climatic conditions significantly contribute to incidence of poverty in the Philippines. Due to the lack of sufficient regional estimates of poverty, this study utilized food cpi data to proxy for poverty level. The relationship between poverty level and food cpi were tested and found to be moving in parallel direction, and hence, could be substituted for each other for this study’s purposes. The relationship between poverty and food prices has also been verified in the literature, as higher food prices is the dominant variable that results in higher poverty levels. The results show that higher agricultural wages as well as extreme climate-influenced shocks such as El Niño and La Niña were significant determinants of poverty. Higher agricultural wage benefits agricultural workers, but the income effect may be small, and that overall, the net effect of is higher food prices that, in turn, exacerbates overall poverty. The negative impact of El Niño and La Niña on food prices (and therefore, poverty level) could be attributed to the consistent and appropriate government response to these weather shocks, which have stabilized supply of food. Government programs to stock up on rice during weather shocks, and the automatic assistance to farmers during calamities, have had the overall effect of neutralizing the potential poverty impacts of climate-related shocks. These are useful insights in carving out a climate-resilient economic development plan, and emphasize the importance of timely and appropriate government action and adaptation programs.

Suggested Citation

  • Agustin L. Arcenas, 2018. "Establishing the Link Between Poverty and Changes in Climatic Conditions in the Philippines," UP School of Economics Discussion Papers 201801, University of the Philippines School of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:201801
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    File URL: https://www.econ.upd.edu.ph/dp/index.php/dp/article/view/1513
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Skoufias, Emmanuel & Rabassa, Mariano & Olivieri, Sergio & Brahmbhatt, Milan, 2011. "The Poverty Impacts of Climate Change," World Bank - Economic Premise, The World Bank, issue 51, pages 1-5, March.
    2. Ahmed, Syud Amer & Diffenbaugh, Noah S. & Hertel, Thomas W. & Ramankutty, Navin & Rios, Ana R. & Rowhani, Pedram, 2009. "Climate Volatility and Poverty Vulnerability in Tanzania," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49358, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Thomas W. Hertel & Stephanie D. Rosch, 2010. "Climate Change, Agriculture, and Poverty," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 32(3), pages 355-385.
    4. Min Bahadur Shrestha Ph.D. & Shashi Kant Chaudhary, 2012. "The Impact of Food Inflation on Poverty in Nepal," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Research Department, vol. 24(2), pages 1-14, October.
    5. Skoufias, Emmanuel & Rabassa, Mariano & Olivieri, Sergio, 2011. "The poverty impacts of climate change : a review of the evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5622, The World Bank.
    6. repec:nrb:journl:v:24:y:2012:i:2:p:1 is not listed on IDEAS
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Poverty; El Niño; La Niña; climate change; food inflation;

    JEL classification:

    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • Q15 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy
    • Q20 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - General
    • Q21 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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